Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Zagłębia Lubin plays host to Zaglebie Lubin versus Slask Wroclaw in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Friday 15 July 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Zaglebie Lubin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Zaglebie Lubin haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Slask Wroclaw (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Slask Wroclaw haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Slask Wroclaw's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Zaglebie Lubin register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Slask Wroclaw in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Zaglebie Lubin 0W, Slask Wroclaw 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Zaglebie Lubin half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Slask Wroclaw half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zaglebie Lubin 53% and Slask Wroclaw 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 65% | Slask Wroclaw 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.42 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.009 / defence 1.142 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.986 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.198. Data: 34 Zaglebie Lubin games / 34 Slask Wroclaw games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 39% | Draw 26% | Slask Wroclaw 35%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Slask Wroclaw 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 70% | Slask Wroclaw 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Friday 15 Jul 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 39% | Draw 26% | Slask Wroclaw 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.42 / Slask Wroclaw 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.009 / def 1.142 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.986 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Slask Wroclaw xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 15 July 2022 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Zaglebie Lubin 0 - 0 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 39% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (2 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 0W | Draws 1 | Slask Wroclaw 1W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Zaglebie Lubin's attack at 1.01x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slask Wroclaw's attack (0.99x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
39%
2.58
26%
3.88
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.77
1.35
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
10%
9.95
9%
11.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.35 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zaglebie Lubin's recent record stands at 11W 5D 18L from 34 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five. Zaglebie Lubin haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Slask Wroclaw, meanwhile, have gone 7W 14D 13L across 34 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-D-D-D-L in their last five. Slask Wroclaw haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.03 for Slask Wroclaw. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Zaglebie Lubin have managed 7W 3D 7L from 17 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slask Wroclaw's away record stands at 4W 6D 7L across 17 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.24 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw in 68%.
Last 34 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Pre-Season
Slask Wroclaw
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 11W 5D 18L in their last 34 games (1.12 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 7W 14D 13L in their last 34 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.41 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zaglebie Lubin won 0-3 on 28 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Zaglebie Lubin
2
Draws
3
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw?
From 8 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, Slask Wroclaw have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Slask Wroclaw 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Zaglebie Lubin, 76% for Slask Wroclaw — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 53% (Slask Wroclaw). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 76% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Zaglebie Lubin's matches and 53% of Slask Wroclaw's.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Zaglebie Lubin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 1, as Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.42 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.35 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Slask Wroclaw landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.01 / defence 1.14 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 39% | Draw 26% | Slask Wroclaw 35%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 65%, Slask Wroclaw 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.12 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.