Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 39%, yet the head-to-head data favours Pogon Szczecin — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin welcome Pogon Szczecin to Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 7). Kick-off is Sunday 3 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Pogon Szczecin — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Zaglebie Lubin) versus 1.60 (Pogon Szczecin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Zaglebie Lubin's 30% BTTS rate and Pogon Szczecin's 30% (from Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 home games and Pogon Szczecin's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
Pogon Szczecin have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Zaglebie Lubin. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Mar 2023, ended Zaglebie Lubin 0–1 Pogon Szczecin — a Pogon Szczecin win.
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Zaglebie Lubin trading profile (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 46% versus Pogon Szczecin 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 46% | Pogon Szczecin 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Zaglebie Lubin surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Pogon Szczecin have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.04 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.891 / defence 0.924 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.923 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 0.918. Data: built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 40 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 39.
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 39% | Draw 36% | Pogon Szczecin 25%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.58 | Draw 2.76 | Pogon Szczecin 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zaglebie Lubin are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.82 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 home games and Pogon Szczecin's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zaglebie Lubin 30% (last 10 home games) | Pogon Szczecin 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 7 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Sunday 3 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 39% | Draw 36% | Pogon Szczecin 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.04 / Pogon Szczecin 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.891 / def 0.924 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.923 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.341 / away 0.918 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Pogon Szczecin xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin FAQs
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 0 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 7) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 39% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 25% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zaglebie Lubin's attack at 0.89x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 40 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
39%
2.58
36%
2.76
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
1.82
0.78
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.58
39%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
9%
11.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 12.7 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.2 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.78 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 39 games, going 15W 9D 15L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.69 PPG from 39 outings (19W 9D 11L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.38 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 6W 5D 8L across their last 19 home games, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.53 points per game from their last 19 away games (8W 5D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.54 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Zaglebie Lubin (Home) vs Pogon Szczecin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin Form FAQs
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 15W 9D 15L in their last 39 games (1.38 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 19W 9D 11L in their last 39 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.21 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Nov 2025, when Pogon Szczecin won Pogon Szczecin 5-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Zaglebie Lubin
2
Draws
6
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 47%, Pogon Szczecin 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 47% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 58% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 47% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Zaglebie Lubin edge out Pogon Szczecin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Pogon Szczecin 1-0 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.04 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.78 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.89 / defence 0.92 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.92 / defence 0.87, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 39% | Draw 36% | Pogon Szczecin 25%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 46%, Pogon Szczecin 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.38 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.