Wisla Plock 2-0 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego plays host to Wisla Plock versus Zaglebie Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 8 April 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wisla Plock have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego than their overall form suggests.
Zaglebie Lubin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Zaglebie Lubin arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Wisla Plock 1W, Zaglebie Lubin 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Wisla Plock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 55% versus Zaglebie Lubin 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 53% | Zaglebie Lubin 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.06 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.878 / defence 0.883 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.205 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.037. Zaglebie Lubin have an above-average attack strength of 1.205 — the away xG of 1.10 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Wisla Plock games / 60 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 32% | Draw 34% | Zaglebie Lubin 34%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Zaglebie Lubin 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 50% | Zaglebie Lubin 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 32% | Draw 34% | Zaglebie Lubin 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Wisla Plock 1.06 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.878 / def 0.883 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.205 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Zaglebie Lubin xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Wisla Plock 2 - 0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 32% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (3 meetings): Wisla Plock 1W | Draws 0 | Zaglebie Lubin 2W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Wisla Plock's attack at 0.88x the league average against Zaglebie Lubin's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (1.21x) against Wisla Plock's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
32%
3.12
34%
2.95
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.17
1.10
Zaglebie Lubin xG
3.12
32%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
12%
8.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.10 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wisla Plock's recent record stands at 24W 9D 27L from 60 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 29L across 60 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Wisla Plock against 1.15 for Zaglebie Lubin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Wisla Plock have managed 17W 5D 7L from 29 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record stands at 10W 4D 15L across 29 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.12 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 24W 9D 27L in their last 60 games (1.35 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 19W 12D 29L in their last 60 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Wisla Plock's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 1.93 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wisla Plock won 4-0 on 20 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wisla Plock have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
0
Draws
3
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 Wisla Plock.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 45%, Zaglebie Lubin 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Wisla Plock) and 66% (Zaglebie Lubin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 31%; Zaglebie Lubin in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 38% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Wisla Plock's matches and 66% of Zaglebie Lubin's.
Do Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wisla Plock cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.06 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.10 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Wisla Plock beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zaglebie Lubin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.88 / defence 0.88 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.21 / defence 0.99, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 32% | Draw 34% | Zaglebie Lubin 34%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Wisla Plock win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 53%, Zaglebie Lubin 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.35 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.