Wisla Plock 0-0 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego plays host to Wisla Plock versus Stal Mielec in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wisla Plock have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Wisla Plock's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego than their overall form suggests.
Stal Mielec's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stal Mielec's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Wisla Plock against 0.90 for Stal Mielec. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wisla Plock lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Wisla Plock half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Stal Mielec half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 53% versus Stal Mielec 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 52% | Stal Mielec 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.46 xG and Stal Mielec 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.960 / defence 1.077 | Stal Mielec attack 1.012 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.030. Data: 64 Wisla Plock games / 64 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 44% | Draw 29% | Stal Mielec 28%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Stal Mielec 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Plock at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Plock 50% | Stal Mielec 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 44% | Draw 29% | Stal Mielec 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Wisla Plock 1.46 / Stal Mielec 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.960 / def 1.077 | Stal Mielec attack 1.012 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Stal Mielec xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec?
Wisla Plock 0 - 0 Stal Mielec.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec part of?
Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 44% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Wisla Plock and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Stal Mielec?
Record (3 meetings): Wisla Plock 1W | Draws 1 | Stal Mielec 1W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Stal Mielec in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Stal Mielec (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Stal Mielec's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Stal Mielec's attack (1.01x) against Wisla Plock's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.48
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.58
1.12
Stal Mielec xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
6%
15.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.4 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.12 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, Wisla Plock have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 25W 9D 30L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Stal Mielec's form line: 19W 18D 27L from 64 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Wisla Plock against 1.17 for Stal Mielec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wisla Plock have posted 1.94 PPG from 32 outings (19W 5D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Stal Mielec have gone 7W 8D 17L from 32 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.16 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Current Season
Stal Mielec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 25W 9D 30L in their last 64 games (1.31 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 19W 18D 27L in their last 64 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Stal Mielec away?
Wisla Plock's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 1.94 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wisla Plock won 3-0 on 21 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wisla Plock have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stal Mielec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Wisla Plock
2
Draws
1
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Stal Mielec?
From 4 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 1, Stal Mielec have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when Wisla Plock 0-0 Stal Mielec.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 44%, Stal Mielec 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Wisla Plock) and 47% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Stal Mielec in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Stal Mielec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 56% of Stal Mielec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 47% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Wisla Plock's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock and Stal Mielec finished level at 0-0 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.46 xG and Stal Mielec 1.12 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wisla Plock fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Stal Mielec landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.96 / defence 1.08 against Stal Mielec attack 1.01 / defence 1.17, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 44% | Draw 29% | Stal Mielec 28%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 52%, Stal Mielec 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.31 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.