Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Wisla Krakow at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana plays host to Wisla Krakow versus Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 10 April 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Wisla Krakow's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wisla Krakow have posted 5W 0D 0L at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Wisla Krakow are significantly better at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana than their overall form suggests.
Widzew Łódź have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Wisla Krakow's favour (1.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Wisla Krakow 0W, Widzew Łódź 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Wisla Krakow — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Krakow 64% and Widzew Łódź 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Krakow 54% | Widzew Łódź 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.37 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 0.993 / defence 0.829 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.926 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Data: 11 Wisla Krakow games / 45 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 41% | Draw 35% | Widzew Łódź 24%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | Widzew Łódź 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Krakow are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wisla Krakow if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Krakow 60% | Widzew Łódź 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 41% | Draw 35% | Widzew Łódź 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG Wisla Krakow 1.37 / Widzew Łódź 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 0.993 / def 0.829 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.926 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Wisla Krakow (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Widzew Łódź xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 41% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 24% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Wisla Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Widzew Łódź?
Record (1 meetings): Wisla Krakow 0W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 0W.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Widzew Łódź in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Wisla Krakow's attack at 0.99x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (0.93x) against Wisla Krakow's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Krakow Win
41%
2.43
35%
2.87
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
2.40
1.02
Widzew Łódź xG
2.43
41%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
6%
16.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 1.02 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Wisla Krakow have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 5W 3D 3L record — D-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 1W 7D 3L from 11 games, 0.91 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wisla Krakow are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Widzew Łódź.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wisla Krakow have posted 3.00 PPG from 5 outings (5W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Wisla Krakow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wisla Krakow are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.27 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Widzew Łódź in 64%.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 games (1.64 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 7D 3L in their last 11 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Krakow at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Wisla Krakow's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Krakow at home: 3.00 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Wisla Krakow or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Wisla Krakow
1
Draws
0
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Widzew Łódź?
From 1 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 0, Widzew Łódź have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Widzew Łódź 0-0 Wisla Krakow.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Krakow 60%, Widzew Łódź 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Wisla Krakow) and 40% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Widzew Łódź in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Wisla Krakow's games and 60% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Wisla Krakow's recent games and 40% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Krakow and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Wisla Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.