Wieczysta Kraków vs Gornik Zabrze – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wieczysta Kraków vs Gornik Zabrze encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Gornik Zabrze travel to Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana to take on Wieczysta Kraków. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 May 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wieczysta Kraków stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wieczysta Kraków, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wieczysta Kraków's home record at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana: 1W 1D 3L from 5 Ekstraklasa appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gornik Zabrze — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Gornik Zabrze's 1.90 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Wieczysta Kraków's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Wieczysta Kraków trading profile (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Gornik Zabrze trading profile (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wieczysta Kraków 69% and Gornik Zabrze 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wieczysta Kraków 69% | Gornik Zabrze 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wieczysta Kraków 0.92 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.877 / defence 1.198 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.068 / defence 0.656. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.292. Gornik Zabrze's defence strength of 0.656 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 13 Wieczysta Kraków games / 47 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 19% | Draw 29% | Gornik Zabrze 52%. Fair-value odds: Wieczysta Kraków 5.26 | Draw 3.45 | Gornik Zabrze 1.92. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wieczysta Kraków 80% | Gornik Zabrze 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wieczysta Kraków vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 19% | Draw 29% | Gornik Zabrze 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Wieczysta Kraków 0.92 / Gornik Zabrze 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.877 / def 1.198 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.068 / def 0.656 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Gornik Zabrze xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wieczysta Kraków vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Gornik Zabrze is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 1 May 2027 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
Where is Wieczysta Kraków vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wieczysta Kraków vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wieczysta Kraków vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Wieczysta Kraków a 19% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 52% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wieczysta Kraków vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Wieczysta Kraków and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Wieczysta Kraków vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wieczysta Kraków and Gornik Zabrze?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Gornik Zabrze in?
Wieczysta Kraków (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wieczysta Kraków's attack at 0.88x the league average against Gornik Zabrze's defence at 0.66x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Wieczysta Kraków's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-2 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
19%
5.30
29%
3.47
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Total xG
2.58
1.65
Gornik Zabrze xG
5.30
19%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
4%
27.63
21%
4.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 12.6 | 10.4 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wieczysta Kraków vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Wieczysta Kraków and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.65 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Wieczysta Kraków vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wieczysta Kraków come into this having played 13 games, going 2W 2D 9L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Wieczysta Kraków is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gornik Zabrze sit at 2.15 PPG from 13 outings (8W 4D 1L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gornik Zabrze carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.53 PPG clear of Wieczysta Kraków — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wieczysta Kraków's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Gornik Zabrze have taken 2.20 points per game from 5 outings (3W 2D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wieczysta Kraków are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.62 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wieczysta Kraków have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Gornik Zabrze in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wieczysta Kraków
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Wieczysta Kraków have gone 2W 2D 9L in their last 13 games (0.62 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 8W 4D 1L in their last 13 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wieczysta Kraków at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Gornik Zabrze's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wieczysta Kraków at home: 0.80 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Wieczysta Kraków or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wieczysta Kraków have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 31%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wieczysta Kraków are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Gornik Zabrze see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wieczysta Kraków 80%, Gornik Zabrze 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Wieczysta Kraków) and 20% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wieczysta Kraków home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wieczysta Kraków play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Wieczysta Kraków's games and 40% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wieczysta Kraków vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of Wieczysta Kraków's recent games and 20% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wieczysta Kraków and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Wieczysta Kraków have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.