Widzew Łódź 2-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Widzew Łódź host Piast Gliwice at Stadion Widzewa Lodz in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadion Widzewa Lodz, Widzew Łódź have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Piast Gliwice stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Piast Gliwice's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Widzew Łódź 1.50 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Widzew Łódź register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Piast Gliwice in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Widzew Łódź hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 2 for Piast Gliwice, with 0 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with Widzew Łódź winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Widzew Łódź and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 49% versus Piast Gliwice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 45% | Piast Gliwice 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.45 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.990 / defence 0.787 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.085 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.175. Widzew Łódź's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 Widzew Łódź games / 67 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 46% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 25%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Piast Gliwice 4.00. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Widzew Łódź at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Widzew Łódź 60% | Piast Gliwice 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Widzewa Lodz • Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 46% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.45 / Piast Gliwice 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.990 / def 0.787 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.085 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Piast Gliwice xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 23 May 2026 at Stadion Widzewa Lodz.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Widzew Łódź 2 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Widzewa Lodz.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 46% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice?
Record (7 meetings): Widzew Łódź 5W | Draws 0 | Piast Gliwice 2W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
46%
2.17
29%
3.44
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.46
1.00
Piast Gliwice xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
6%
17.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.00 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Widzew Łódź have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 22W 13D 32L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 22W 20D 25L from 67 games, 1.28 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.18 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Widzew Łódź have posted 1.64 PPG from 33 outings (16W 6D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Widzew Łódź are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 11W 8D 14L from 33 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.16 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 22W 13D 32L in their last 67 games (1.18 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 22W 20D 25L in their last 67 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.64 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Widzew Łódź go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Widzew Łódź
0
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 6, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Widzew Łódź 2-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 42%, Piast Gliwice 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Widzew Łódź) and 46% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 27% of games; Piast Gliwice in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 58% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 46% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Widzew Łódź edge out Piast Gliwice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Piast Gliwice 2-1 at Stadion Widzewa Lodz, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.45 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.00 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.99 / defence 0.79 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.08 / defence 1.06, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 46% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 25%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 45%, Piast Gliwice 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.18 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.