Widzew Łódź 2-1 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Lech Poznan (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Widzew Łódź face Lech Poznan.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 24 as Widzew Łódź welcome Lech Poznan to Stadion Widzewa Lodz. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 19:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Widzewa Lodz this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lech Poznan have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lech Poznan's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lech Poznan — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Widzew Łódź have won 2, Lech Poznan 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Lech Poznan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Lech Poznan in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 51% versus Lech Poznan 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 47% | Lech Poznan 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.05 xG and Lech Poznan 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.860 / defence 1.116 | Lech Poznan attack 0.975 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.178. Data: 57 Widzew Łódź games / 57 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 29% | Draw 31% | Lech Poznan 40%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Lech Poznan 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lech Poznan are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Widzew Łódź 60% | Lech Poznan 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Widzewa Lodz • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 29% | Draw 31% | Lech Poznan 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.05 / Lech Poznan 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.860 / def 1.116 | Lech Poznan attack 0.975 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Lech Poznan xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Stadion Widzewa Lodz.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan?
Widzew Łódź 2 - 1 Lech Poznan.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Widzewa Lodz.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 29% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan?
Record (7 meetings): Widzew Łódź 2W | Draws 1 | Lech Poznan 4W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Lech Poznan (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Widzew Łódź's attack at 0.86x the league average against Lech Poznan's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
29%
3.49
31%
3.22
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.33
1.28
Lech Poznan xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
8%
12.57
14%
7.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.28 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Widzew Łódź have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 18W 10D 29L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lech Poznan's form line: 32W 12D 13L from 57 games, 1.89 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Widzew Łódź.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Widzew Łódź have posted 1.46 PPG from 28 outings (12W 5D 11L).
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 12W 8D 8L from 28 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.89 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 18W 10D 29L in their last 57 games (1.12 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 32W 12D 13L in their last 57 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Lech Poznan away?
Lech Poznan's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.46 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jan 2025, when Lech Poznan won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
5
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan?
From 9 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 3, Lech Poznan have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Widzew Łódź 2-3 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 43%, Lech Poznan 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Widzew Łódź) and 50% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Lech Poznan in 43%; Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Lech Poznan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 46% of Lech Poznan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 50% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lech Poznan in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Widzew Łódź defy the odds to beat Lech Poznan 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Lech Poznan 2-1 at Stadion Widzewa Lodz, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.05 xG and Lech Poznan 1.28 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Widzew Łódź beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.86 / defence 1.12 against Lech Poznan attack 0.97 / defence 0.83, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 29% | Draw 31% | Lech Poznan 40%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Widzew Łódź win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 47%, Lech Poznan 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Widzew Łódź winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.