Warta Poznań 1-1 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Warta Poznań face Zaglebie Lubin.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Warta Poznań welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Stadion Respect Energy in Ekstraklasa (matchday 26). Kick-off is Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Warta Poznań stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Warta Poznań at home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Zaglebie Lubin — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Warta Poznań) versus 1.30 (Zaglebie Lubin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Warta Poznań, 2 for Zaglebie Lubin and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended Warta Poznań 0–1 Zaglebie Lubin — a Zaglebie Lubin win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Warta Poznań trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Zaglebie Lubin trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 37% versus Zaglebie Lubin 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Warta Poznań 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 0.98 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.665 / defence 0.952 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.056 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.148. Warta Poznań's attack rating of 0.665 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Warta Poznań's last 59 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 59.
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 28% | Draw 35% | Zaglebie Lubin 37%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 3.60 | Draw 2.82 | Zaglebie Lubin 2.72. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Warta Poznań 40% (last 10 home games) | Zaglebie Lubin 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadion Respect Energy • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 28% | Draw 35% | Zaglebie Lubin 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Warta Poznań 0.98 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.665 / def 0.952 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.056 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Zaglebie Lubin xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin FAQs
What time does Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at Stadion Respect Energy.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Warta Poznań 1 - 1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Respect Energy.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 26) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 28% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 37% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Warta Poznań's attack at 0.67x the league average against Zaglebie Lubin's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Warta Poznań's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Warta Poznań's last 59 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
28%
3.60
35%
2.82
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.13
1.15
Zaglebie Lubin xG
3.60
28%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
9%
11.41
14%
7.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.7 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.15 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Warta Poznań come into this having played 59 games, going 18W 18D 23L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.34 PPG from 59 outings (21W 16D 22L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Warta Poznań on 1.22 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Warta Poznań's home form reads 7W 11D 11L across their last 29 home games, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.45 points per game from their last 29 away games (12W 6D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.07 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Warta Poznań (Home) vs Zaglebie Lubin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Warta Poznań
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin Form FAQs
What form are Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 18W 18D 23L in their last 59 games (1.22 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 21W 16D 22L in their last 59 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Zaglebie Lubin's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 1.10 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 2 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Mar 2022, when Warta Poznań won Zaglebie Lubin 0-4 Warta Poznań.
Warta Poznań's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Warta Poznań
3
Draws
2
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Warta Poznań have won 1, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 April 2024: Warta Poznań 1-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 45%, Zaglebie Lubin 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Warta Poznań) and 59% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań have failed to score in 41% of games; Zaglebie Lubin in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 41% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 59% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 79% of Zaglebie Lubin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Respect Energy, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 0.98 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.15 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.67 / defence 0.95 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.06 / defence 1.02, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 28% | Draw 35% | Zaglebie Lubin 37%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 30%, Zaglebie Lubin 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Warta Poznań 1.22 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.