Stal Mielec 1-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Stal Mielec take on Jagiellonia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 26 as Stal Mielec welcome Jagiellonia to Stadion Miejski w Mielcu. Kick-off is set for Monday 3 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stal Mielec stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec's home record at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Stal Mielec are significantly better at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's away record: 0W 8D 2L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stal Mielec 0.70 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Stal Mielec, 1 for Jagiellonia and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2022, ended 0–4 with Jagiellonia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Jagiellonia in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 49% versus Jagiellonia 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 42% | Jagiellonia 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 0.91 xG and Jagiellonia 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.768 / defence 0.925 | Jagiellonia attack 0.876 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.039. Stal Mielec's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Stal Mielec games / 59 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 33% | Draw 37% | Jagiellonia 30%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 3.03 | Draw 2.70 | Jagiellonia 3.33. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.75 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Stal Mielec 20% | Jagiellonia 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Monday 3 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 33% | Draw 37% | Jagiellonia 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 36% | xG Stal Mielec 0.91 / Jagiellonia 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.768 / def 0.925 | Jagiellonia attack 0.876 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Jagiellonia xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 3 April 2023 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia?
Stal Mielec 1 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia part of?
Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 33% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 30% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia?
Record (3 meetings): Stal Mielec 0W | Draws 2 | Jagiellonia 1W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Jagiellonia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stal Mielec's attack at 0.77x the league average against Jagiellonia's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.02
37%
2.68
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
1.75
0.84
Jagiellonia xG
3.02
33%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
12%
8.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 14.6 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 0.84 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stal Mielec come into this having played 59 games, going 17W 16D 26L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.17 PPG from 59 outings (15W 24D 20L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stal Mielec on 1.14 PPG, Jagiellonia on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Stal Mielec's home form reads 11W 8D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 0.90 points per game from 29 outings (4W 14D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stal Mielec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.25 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 66%.
Last 59 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 17W 16D 26L in their last 59 games (1.14 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 15W 24D 20L in their last 59 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Jagiellonia away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.41 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2022, when Jagiellonia won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Stal Mielec
3
Draws
3
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 2, Jagiellonia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Stal Mielec 2-1 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stal Mielec see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 41%, Jagiellonia 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Stal Mielec) and 48% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 38% of games; Jagiellonia in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Jagiellonia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 62% of Jagiellonia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 48% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 26, as Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 0.91 xG and Jagiellonia 0.84 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.77 / defence 0.93 against Jagiellonia attack 0.88 / defence 0.95, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 33% | Draw 37% | Jagiellonia 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 42%, Jagiellonia 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.14 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.