Stal Mielec 1-2 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stal Mielec host Gornik Zabrze at Stadion MOSiR in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stal Mielec — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stal Mielec have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadion MOSiR — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gornik Zabrze stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Stal Mielec) versus 1.50 (Gornik Zabrze). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Stal Mielec, 1 for Gornik Zabrze and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Stal Mielec in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Gornik Zabrze in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stal Mielec 58% and Gornik Zabrze 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 47% | Gornik Zabrze 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.34 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.982 / defence 1.140 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.925 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.220. Data: 19 Stal Mielec games / 19 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 38% | Draw 26% | Gornik Zabrze 36%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Gornik Zabrze 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stal Mielec at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stal Mielec 40% | Gornik Zabrze 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion MOSiR • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 38% | Draw 26% | Gornik Zabrze 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Stal Mielec 1.34 / Gornik Zabrze 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.982 / def 1.140 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.925 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Gornik Zabrze xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stadion MOSiR.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze?
Stal Mielec 1 - 2 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion MOSiR.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 38% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (1 meetings): Stal Mielec 0W | Draws 0 | Gornik Zabrze 1W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stal Mielec's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Gornik Zabrze's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
38%
2.62
26%
3.82
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.63
1.29
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
9%
10.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.29 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Stal Mielec have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 7W 7D 5L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gornik Zabrze's form line: 8W 4D 7L from 19 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stal Mielec on 1.47 PPG, Gornik Zabrze on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stal Mielec have posted 2.22 PPG from 9 outings (6W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Stal Mielec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stal Mielec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.42 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gornik Zabrze in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 7W 7D 5L in their last 19 games (1.47 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 8W 4D 7L in their last 19 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Stal Mielec's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 2.22 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Stal Mielec
2
Draws
4
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 2, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2025, when Stal Mielec 0-0 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 44%, Gornik Zabrze 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Stal Mielec and 67% for Gornik Zabrze. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Stal Mielec's games and 78% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Stal Mielec's matches and 67% of Gornik Zabrze's.
Do Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gornik Zabrze defy the odds to beat Stal Mielec 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Stal Mielec 1-2 at Stadion MOSiR, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.34 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.29 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.98 / defence 1.14 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.93 / defence 1.12, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 38% | Draw 26% | Gornik Zabrze 36%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Gornik Zabrze win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 47%, Gornik Zabrze 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.47 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.