Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Tarczynski Arena to take on Slask Wroclaw. The game is scheduled for Friday 23 April 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tarczynski Arena, Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 2D 2L this season (5 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Slask Wroclaw) versus 0.80 (Radomiak Radom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Slask Wroclaw, 3 for Radomiak Radom and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 8 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Slask Wroclaw in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Slask Wroclaw 91% and Radomiak Radom 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Slask Wroclaw 82% | Radomiak Radom 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.89 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.880 / defence 1.398 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.791 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.394 — this is suppressing Slask Wroclaw's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Slask Wroclaw games / 44 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 45% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 27%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Radomiak Radom 3.70. Slask Wroclaw hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.36 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slask Wroclaw 80% | Radomiak Radom 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Tarczynski Arena • Kick-off: Friday 23 Apr 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 45% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 68% | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.89 / Radomiak Radom 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.880 / def 1.398 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.791 / def 1.394 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Radomiak Radom xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Friday 23 April 2027 at Tarczynski Arena.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Tarczynski Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 45% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom?
Record (8 meetings): Slask Wroclaw 2W | Draws 3 | Radomiak Radom 3W.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Slask Wroclaw's attack rating (0.88) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Slask Wroclaw's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.56
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
3.36
1.47
Radomiak Radom xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
15%
6.60
Win to Nil
10%
9.79
4%
24.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.7 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.47 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Slask Wroclaw have picked up 0.55 PPG on a 1W 3D 7L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 2W 2D 7L from 11 games, 0.73 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slask Wroclaw on 0.55 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 0.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Slask Wroclaw have posted 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.55 PPG overall — Slask Wroclaw are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slask Wroclaw come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.00 scored and 2.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw have seen both teams score in 91% of their recent games; Radomiak Radom in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 games (0.55 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.00 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Slask Wroclaw's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Slask Wroclaw
3
Draws
3
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom?
From 8 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, Radomiak Radom have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Radomiak Radom 1-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Slask Wroclaw at 80%, Radomiak Radom at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Slask Wroclaw and 80% for Radomiak Radom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Slask Wroclaw's games and 60% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Slask Wroclaw's matches and 80% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.