Slask Wroclaw 2-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Tarczyński Arena to take on Slask Wroclaw. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 May 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Slask Wroclaw have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Tarczyński Arena, Slask Wroclaw have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Radomiak Radom away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Slask Wroclaw) versus 1.30 (Radomiak Radom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Slask Wroclaw, 2 for Radomiak Radom and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with Slask Wroclaw winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Slask Wroclaw in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 54% versus Radomiak Radom 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 46% | Radomiak Radom 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.96 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 1.093 / defence 0.968 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.113 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.139. Data: 66 Slask Wroclaw games / 66 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 53% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 22%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Radomiak Radom 4.55. Slask Wroclaw hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Slask Wroclaw 50% | Radomiak Radom 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 53% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.96 / Radomiak Radom 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 1.093 / def 0.968 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.113 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Radomiak Radom xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom?
Slask Wroclaw 2 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 53% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom?
Record (5 meetings): Slask Wroclaw 1W | Draws 2 | Radomiak Radom 2W.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Slask Wroclaw's attack rating (1.09) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Slask Wroclaw's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
53%
1.89
25%
4.00
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
3.19
1.23
Radomiak Radom xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
14%
7.09
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
3%
31.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.23 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Slask Wroclaw have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 25W 20D 21L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 22W 16D 28L from 66 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slask Wroclaw on 1.44 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Slask Wroclaw have posted 1.58 PPG from 33 outings (14W 10D 9L).
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 13W 7D 13L from 33 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.12 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Current Season
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 25W 20D 21L in their last 66 games (1.44 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 22W 16D 28L in their last 66 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.58 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Slask Wroclaw's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Slask Wroclaw
3
Draws
3
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom?
From 8 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, Radomiak Radom have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Radomiak Radom 1-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 61%, Radomiak Radom 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Slask Wroclaw) and 54% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 30%; Slask Wroclaw have failed to score in 30% of games; Radomiak Radom in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Slask Wroclaw's recent matches and 39% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 54% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slask Wroclaw cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat Radomiak Radom 2-0 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.96 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.23 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Radomiak Radom landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 1.09 / defence 0.97 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.11 / defence 1.19, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 53% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 22%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 46%, Radomiak Radom 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.44 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slask Wroclaw win broke the near-deadlock. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.