Slask Wroclaw 0-0 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Slask Wroclaw face Puszcza Niepołomice.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Puszcza Niepołomice travel to Tarczyński Arena to take on Slask Wroclaw in Ekstraklasa (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Slask Wroclaw stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Slask Wroclaw at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
Puszcza Niepołomice — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Puszcza Niepołomice's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Slask Wroclaw at 1.50 PPG versus Puszcza Niepołomice's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Slask Wroclaw, 0 for Puszcza Niepołomice and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2023, ended Slask Wroclaw 3–1 Puszcza Niepołomice — a Slask Wroclaw win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Slask Wroclaw trading profile (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Puszcza Niepołomice trading profile (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 71%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Slask Wroclaw 54% and Puszcza Niepołomice 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 46% | Puszcza Niepołomice 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Slask Wroclaw surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Puszcza Niepołomice have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Puszcza Niepołomice surrender HT leads in 71% of cases while Slask Wroclaw recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.69 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.905 / defence 0.864 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.888 / defence 1.339. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.151. Puszcza Niepołomice's defence rating of 1.339 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Slask Wroclaw's projected output up. Data: built from Slask Wroclaw's last 58 games and Puszcza Niepołomice's last 24.
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 55% | Draw 27% | Puszcza Niepołomice 18%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 1.83 | Draw 3.65 | Puszcza Niepołomice 5.58. The model has a clear lean to Slask Wroclaw (55%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slask Wroclaw at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Slask Wroclaw 50% (last 10 home games) | Puszcza Niepołomice 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 25 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 55% | Draw 27% | Puszcza Niepołomice 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.69 / Puszcza Niepołomice 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.905 / def 0.864 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.888 / def 1.339 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice FAQs
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Slask Wroclaw 0 - 0 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 25) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 55% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Puszcza Niepołomice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Slask Wroclaw's attack at 0.91x the league average against Puszcza Niepołomice's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Puszcza Niepołomice's attack versus Slask Wroclaw's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Slask Wroclaw's last 58 games and Puszcza Niepołomice's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
55%
1.83
27%
3.65
18%
5.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.57
0.88
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
5.58
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
3%
30.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 0.88 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slask Wroclaw come into this having played 24 games, going 13W 6D 5L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Puszcza Niepołomice sit at 0.96 PPG from 24 outings (5W 8D 11L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Slask Wroclaw carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Puszcza Niepołomice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slask Wroclaw's home form reads 6W 3D 3L across their last 12 home games, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Puszcza Niepołomice have taken 0.42 points per game from their last 12 away games (1W 2D 9L). That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slask Wroclaw come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Puszcza Niepołomice are on 1.29 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice in 71%.
Defensively: Slask Wroclaw have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
Slask Wroclaw (Home) vs Puszcza Niepołomice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Puszcza Niepołomice
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❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice Form FAQs
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Puszcza Niepołomice in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 13W 6D 5L in their last 24 games (1.88 PPG), while Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 5W 8D 11L in their last 24 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Puszcza Niepołomice away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.75 PPG; Puszcza Niepołomice away: 0.42 PPG.
Have Slask Wroclaw or Puszcza Niepołomice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slask Wroclaw have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Puszcza Niepołomice in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 24 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slask Wroclaw's record when hosting Puszcza Niepołomice specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Slask Wroclaw
2
Draws
1
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 May 2025: Puszcza Niepołomice 1-1 Slask Wroclaw.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slask Wroclaw see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 58%, Puszcza Niepołomice 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Slask Wroclaw) and 50% (Puszcza Niepołomice).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slask Wroclaw and Puszcza Niepołomice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Slask Wroclaw's games and 67% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Slask Wroclaw and Puszcza Niepołomice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 50% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Puszcza Niepołomice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Slask Wroclaw's recent matches and 83% of Puszcza Niepołomice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Slask Wroclaw's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw and Puszcza Niepołomice finished level at 0-0 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.69 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.88 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Puszcza Niepołomice landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.91 / defence 0.86 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.89 / defence 1.34, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 55% | Draw 27% | Puszcza Niepołomice 18%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 46%, Puszcza Niepołomice 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Slask Wroclaw arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.