Ruch Chorzów 2-3 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 29 as Ruch Chorzów welcome Widzew Łódź to Stadion Śląski. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Ruch Chorzów have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadion Śląski, Ruch Chorzów have gone 1W 6D 3L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Widzew Łódź stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Widzew Łódź's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Ruch Chorzów's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ruch Chorzów have won 0, Widzew Łódź 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Widzew Łódź winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ruch Chorzów in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruch Chorzów 54% versus Widzew Łódź 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruch Chorzów 50% | Widzew Łódź 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruch Chorzów 0.93 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruch Chorzów attack 0.733 / defence 1.012 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.020 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.076. Ruch Chorzów's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 Ruch Chorzów games / 62 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruch Chorzów 28% | Draw 35% | Widzew Łódź 37%. Fair-value odds: Ruch Chorzów 3.57 | Draw 2.86 | Widzew Łódź 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Ruch Chorzów 40% | Widzew Łódź 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Śląski • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruch Chorzów 28% | Draw 35% | Widzew Łódź 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Ruch Chorzów 0.93 / Widzew Łódź 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Ruch Chorzów attack 0.733 / def 1.012 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.020 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Ruch Chorzów xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Widzew Łódź xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stadion Śląski.
What was the final score in Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź?
Ruch Chorzów 2 - 3 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Śląski.
What competition is Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Ruch Chorzów a 28% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 37% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ruch Chorzów and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruch Chorzów and Widzew Łódź?
Record (1 meetings): Ruch Chorzów 0W | Draws 0 | Widzew Łódź 1W.
What form are Ruch Chorzów and Widzew Łódź in?
Ruch Chorzów (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ruch Chorzów's attack at 0.73x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Ruch Chorzów's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
28%
3.59
35%
2.86
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Ruch Chorzów xG
Total xG
2.04
1.11
Widzew Łódź xG
3.59
28%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
9%
10.89
15%
6.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.4 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Ruch Chorzów and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Ruch Chorzów and 1.11 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ruch Chorzów's recent record stands at 2W 14D 12L from 28 games, a 0.71 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Widzew Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 11L across 28 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Widzew Łódź by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ruch Chorzów heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ruch Chorzów have managed 2W 7D 5L from 14 games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Widzew Łódź's away record stands at 2W 6D 6L across 14 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Widzew Łódź's season.
The Goals Picture
Ruch Chorzów are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.29 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Widzew Łódź in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruch Chorzów
Current Season
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruch Chorzów and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Ruch Chorzów have gone 2W 14D 12L in their last 28 games (0.71 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 11W 6D 11L in their last 28 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruch Chorzów at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Ruch Chorzów's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruch Chorzów at home: 0.93 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ruch Chorzów and Widzew Łódź runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ruch Chorzów
0
Draws
2
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruch Chorzów and Widzew Łódź?
From 2 meetings on record, Ruch Chorzów have won 0, Widzew Łódź have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ruch Chorzów and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Ruch Chorzów 2-3 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Ruch Chorzów and Widzew Łódź?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ruch Chorzów see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruch Chorzów 43%, Widzew Łódź 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Ruch Chorzów) and 50% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Ruch Chorzów keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Ruch Chorzów have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruch Chorzów home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruch Chorzów play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Ruch Chorzów's games and 79% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ruch Chorzów vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Ruch Chorzów's recent games and 50% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruch Chorzów and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Ruch Chorzów have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Widzew Łódź edge out Ruch Chorzów 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Ruch Chorzów 2-3 at Stadion Śląski, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruch Chorzów 0.93 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.11 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Ruch Chorzów beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Widzew Łódź outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruch Chorzów attack 0.73 / defence 1.01 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.02 / defence 0.89, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruch Chorzów 28% | Draw 35% | Widzew Łódź 37%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruch Chorzów 50%, Widzew Łódź 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruch Chorzów's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Widzew Łódź arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. Ruch Chorzów (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.