Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków plays host to Raków Częstochowa versus Wisla Plock in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Friday 25 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's home record at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
Wisla Plock's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Wisla Plock have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Raków Częstochowa against 1.70 for Wisla Plock. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Raków Częstochowa 0W, Wisla Plock 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Raków Częstochowa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Wisla Plock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 50% versus Wisla Plock 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 64% | Wisla Plock 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 2.34 xG and Wisla Plock 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.311 / defence 0.917 | Wisla Plock attack 0.863 / defence 1.589. League average goals — home 1.123 / away 1.148. Raków Częstochowa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.311 — their λ of 2.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Wisla Plock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.589 — this is suppressing Raków Częstochowa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Raków Częstochowa games / 22 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 69% | Draw 18% | Wisla Plock 13%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.45 | Draw 5.56 | Wisla Plock 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (69%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 69% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 40% | Wisla Plock 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Friday 25 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 69% | Draw 18% | Wisla Plock 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 54% | xG Raków Częstochowa 2.34 / Wisla Plock 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.311 / def 0.917 | Wisla Plock attack 0.863 / def 1.589 | league avg home 1.123 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Wisla Plock xG
54%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 25 February 2022 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock?
Raków Częstochowa 2 - 0 Wisla Plock.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 69% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 13% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock?
Record (1 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 0W | Draws 1 | Wisla Plock 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Wisla Plock (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 1.31x the league average against Wisla Plock's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 2.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (0.86x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
69%
1.45
18%
5.44
13%
7.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
3.25
0.91
Wisla Plock xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.44
18%
Draw
7.91
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
10%
10.37
Win to Nil
28%
3.60
1%
82.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.91 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Raków Częstochowa's recent record stands at 12W 6D 4L from 22 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 9W 3D 10L across 22 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Raków Częstochowa by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wisla Plock heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Raków Częstochowa have managed 6W 3D 1L from 10 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Plock's away record stands at 1W 1D 8L across 10 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.41 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 12W 6D 4L in their last 22 games (1.91 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 9W 3D 10L in their last 22 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Wisla Plock away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.10 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Wisla Plock go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 7-1 on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Raków Częstochowa have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Raków Częstochowa
1
Draws
3
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock?
From 7 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 3, Wisla Plock have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 1-2 Wisla Plock.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 40% for Raków Częstochowa, 90% for Wisla Plock — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Raków Częstochowa and 80% for Wisla Plock. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Raków Częstochowa's games and 90% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Raków Częstochowa's matches and 80% of Wisla Plock's.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Wisla Plock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Wisla Plock 2-0 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 2.34 xG and Wisla Plock 0.91 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Wisla Plock landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.31 / defence 0.92 against Wisla Plock attack 0.86 / defence 1.59, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 69% | Draw 18% | Wisla Plock 13%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 64%, Wisla Plock 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.36. That form edge translated into the three points. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.