Raków Częstochowa 3-2 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków plays host to Raków Częstochowa versus Stal Mielec in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 31 July 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Raków Częstochowa have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Raków Częstochowa have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
Stal Mielec (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Stal Mielec have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stal Mielec's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Raków Częstochowa's favour (2.10 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Raków Częstochowa 2W, Stal Mielec 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2022, ended 2–1 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Raków Częstochowa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Stal Mielec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 49% versus Stal Mielec 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 54% | Stal Mielec 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.48 xG and Stal Mielec 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.133 / defence 0.774 | Stal Mielec attack 1.058 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.164. Raków Częstochowa's defence rating of 0.774 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Raków Częstochowa games / 36 Stal Mielec games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 49% | Draw 28% | Stal Mielec 23%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Stal Mielec 4.35. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Raków Częstochowa 50% | Stal Mielec 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jul 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 49% | Draw 28% | Stal Mielec 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.48 / Stal Mielec 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.133 / def 0.774 | Stal Mielec attack 1.058 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Stal Mielec xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 31 July 2022 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec?
Raków Częstochowa 3 - 2 Stal Mielec.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 49% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Stal Mielec?
Record (2 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 2W | Draws 0 | Stal Mielec 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Stal Mielec in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Stal Mielec (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (1.13) and Stal Mielec's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stal Mielec's attack (1.06x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
The sample (35/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
49%
2.06
28%
3.54
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.44
0.95
Stal Mielec xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
5%
18.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.95 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Raków Częstochowa's recent record stands at 21W 9D 5L from 35 games, a 2.06 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stal Mielec, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 15L across 35 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Stal Mielec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Raków Częstochowa by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stal Mielec heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Raków Częstochowa have managed 11W 5D 1L from 17 games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stal Mielec's away record stands at 3W 5D 9L across 17 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.17 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stal Mielec in 60%.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
Stal Mielec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 21W 9D 5L in their last 35 games (2.06 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 10W 10D 15L in their last 35 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Stal Mielec away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.24 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Stal Mielec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Stal Mielec in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Raków Częstochowa go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 0-3 on 19 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Raków Częstochowa have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stal Mielec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
0
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Stal Mielec?
From 8 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 6, Stal Mielec have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Stal Mielec 0-2 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Stal Mielec?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 47%, Stal Mielec 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Raków Częstochowa) and 53% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Stal Mielec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Raków Częstochowa's games and 65% of Stal Mielec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 53% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out Stal Mielec 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Stal Mielec 3-2 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.48 xG and Stal Mielec 0.95 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stal Mielec outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.13 / defence 0.77 against Stal Mielec attack 1.06 / defence 1.05, drawn from 35/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 49% | Draw 28% | Stal Mielec 23%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 54%, Stal Mielec 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.