Radomiak Radom 4-2 Wisla Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Krakow at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wisla Krakow make the trip to Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 May 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Radomiak Radom (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Wisla Krakow have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Wisla Krakow's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 0.90 for Wisla Krakow. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Wisla Krakow in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Radomiak Radom, 0 for Wisla Krakow and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Wisla Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 53% versus Wisla Krakow 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 38% | Wisla Krakow 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.20 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.873 / defence 1.481 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.661 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 1.062 / away 1.250. Wisla Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.296 — this is suppressing Radomiak Radom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Radomiak Radom games / 32 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 34% | Draw 30% | Wisla Krakow 36%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Wisla Krakow 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Krakow at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wisla Krakow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 60% | Wisla Krakow 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 34% | Draw 30% | Wisla Krakow 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.20 / Wisla Krakow 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.873 / def 1.481 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.661 / def 1.296 | league avg home 1.062 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Wisla Krakow (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Wisla Krakow xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow?
Radomiak Radom 4 - 2 Wisla Krakow.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 34% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Wisla Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Wisla Krakow?
Record (1 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 0 | Wisla Krakow 0W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Wisla Krakow in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.87x the league average against Wisla Krakow's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wisla Krakow's attack (0.66x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Krakow Win
34%
2.90
30%
3.34
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.43
1.22
Wisla Krakow xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
11%
9.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.22 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 10W 14D 8L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Wisla Krakow's form line: 7W 10D 15L from 32 games, 0.97 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Radomiak Radom are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wisla Krakow.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.56 PPG from 16 outings (6W 7D 3L).
On the road, Wisla Krakow have gone 2W 5D 9L from 16 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 1.09 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
Wisla Krakow
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 10W 14D 8L in their last 32 games (1.38 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 7W 10D 15L in their last 32 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Wisla Krakow away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.56 PPG; Wisla Krakow away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Radomiak Radom
0
Draws
0
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Wisla Krakow?
From 2 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Wisla Krakow have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2022, when Radomiak Radom 4-2 Wisla Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Wisla Krakow?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Radomiak Radom, 62% for Wisla Krakow — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Radomiak Radom) and 50% (Wisla Krakow).
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Wisla Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Radomiak Radom's games and 62% of Wisla Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 50% of Wisla Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Wisla Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Wisla Krakow 4-2 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.20 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.22 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.87 / defence 1.48 against Wisla Krakow attack 0.66 / defence 1.30, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 34% | Draw 30% | Wisla Krakow 36%, with Wisla Krakow to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Radomiak Radom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 38%, Wisla Krakow 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Radomiak Radom arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.