Radomiak Radom 1-2 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Radomiaka plays host to Radomiak Radom versus Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 17 August 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Radomiaka, Radomiak Radom have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jagiellonia (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jagiellonia's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Radomiak Radom, 1.50 for Jagiellonia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Radomiak Radom register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Jagiellonia in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Jagiellonia hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 0–5 with Jagiellonia winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Jagiellonia have won 4 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 68% and Jagiellonia 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 62% | Jagiellonia 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 2.08 xG and Jagiellonia 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.348 / defence 0.974 | Jagiellonia attack 0.988 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.677 / away 1.241. Radomiak Radom carry an above-average attack strength of 1.348 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Radomiak Radom games / 37 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 57% | Draw 22% | Jagiellonia 21%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Jagiellonia 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Radomiak Radom (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Jagiellonia 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Aug 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 57% | Draw 22% | Jagiellonia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG Radomiak Radom 2.08 / Jagiellonia 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.348 / def 0.974 | Jagiellonia attack 0.988 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.677 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Jagiellonia xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 17 August 2025 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 2 Jagiellonia.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 57% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia?
Record (8 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 3 | Jagiellonia 4W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (0.99x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
57%
1.75
22%
4.57
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
3.27
1.20
Jagiellonia xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
13%
7.97
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
3%
38.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.20 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 9D 16L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.81 PPG from 37 outings (19W 10D 8L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 8W 5D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 1.65 points per game from 17 outings (8W 4D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.73 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Jagiellonia in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Jagiellonia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 games (1.22 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 19W 10D 8L in their last 37 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Jagiellonia away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.71 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 5-0 on 2 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Radomiak Radom
4
Draws
5
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 1, Jagiellonia have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 71%, Jagiellonia 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Radomiak Radom) and 47% (Jagiellonia).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Radomiak Radom's games and 59% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 47% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jagiellonia defy the odds to beat Radomiak Radom 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Radomiak Radom 1-2 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 2.08 xG and Jagiellonia 1.20 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Jagiellonia outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.35 / defence 0.97 against Jagiellonia attack 0.99 / defence 0.92, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 57% | Draw 22% | Jagiellonia 21%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Jagiellonia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 62%, Jagiellonia 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.