Radomiak Radom 1-3 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 42%, yet in-form Gornik Zabrze provide a compelling counter-argument — this Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze meet at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 12:45 UTC.

Form

Radomiak Radom (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Radomiak Radom's home record at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Gornik Zabrze's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Gornik Zabrze have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Gornik Zabrze arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Radomiak Radom, 4 for Gornik Zabrze and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 2–6 with Gornik Zabrze winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Gornik Zabrze half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 71% and Gornik Zabrze 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 60% | Gornik Zabrze 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.39 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.063 / defence 1.037 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.919 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.168. Data: 36 Radomiak Radom games / 35 Gornik Zabrze games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 42% | Draw 29% | Gornik Zabrze 29%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Gornik Zabrze 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gornik Zabrze (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 70% | Gornik Zabrze 50% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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