Radomiak Radom 3-1 Górnik Łęczna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Radomiak Radom at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Łęczna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 12 as Radomiak Radom welcome Górnik Łęczna to Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 3D 0L this season (5 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Górnik Łęczna have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Górnik Łęczna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Górnik Łęczna have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Radomiak Radom have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Radomiak Radom register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Górnik Łęczna in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).
Górnik Łęczna in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 64%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 64% and Górnik Łęczna 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 27% | Górnik Łęczna 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.72 xG and Górnik Łęczna 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.916 / defence 1.083 | Górnik Łęczna attack 0.687 / defence 1.549. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.179. Górnik Łęczna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.549 — this is suppressing Radomiak Radom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Radomiak Radom games / 11 Górnik Łęczna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 57% | Draw 24% | Górnik Łęczna 19%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Górnik Łęczna 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Radomiak Radom (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Radomiak Radom 80% | Górnik Łęczna 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Łęczna | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 57% | Draw 24% | Górnik Łęczna 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.72 / Górnik Łęczna 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.916 / def 1.083 | Górnik Łęczna attack 0.687 / def 1.549 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Górnik Łęczna xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Łęczna kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Łęczna kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Łęczna?
Radomiak Radom 3 - 1 Górnik Łęczna.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Łęczna being played?
The match is being played at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Łęczna part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Łęczna is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 57% chance of winning, Górnik Łęczna a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Górnik Łęczna will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Łęczna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Górnik Łęczna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Górnik Łęczna in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Górnik Łęczna (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Górnik Łęczna's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Górnik Łęczna's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
57%
1.75
24%
4.22
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.60
0.88
Górnik Łęczna xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
3%
29.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Górnik Łęczna expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.88 for Górnik Łęczna, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Łęczna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 7D 2L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Górnik Łęczna sit at 0.55 PPG from 11 outings (1W 3D 7L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Górnik Łęczna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Górnik Łęczna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 2W 3D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Górnik Łęczna have taken 0.20 points per game from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Górnik Łęczna are on 0.82 scored and 2.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Górnik Łęczna in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Górnik Łęczna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Górnik Łęczna in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 7D 2L in their last 11 games (1.18 PPG), while Górnik Łęczna have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Górnik Łęczna away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.80 PPG; Górnik Łęczna away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Górnik Łęczna runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Radomiak Radom
0
Draws
1
Górnik Łęczna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Górnik Łęczna?
From 2 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 1, Górnik Łęczna have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Górnik Łęczna last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2022, when Górnik Łęczna 1-0 Radomiak Radom.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Górnik Łęczna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Radomiak Radom at 80%, Górnik Łęczna at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Radomiak Radom) and 60% (Górnik Łęczna).
On the defensive side: Górnik Łęczna in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Górnik Łęczna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Górnik Łęczna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Radomiak Radom's games and 60% of Górnik Łęczna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Łęczna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 60% of Górnik Łęczna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Górnik Łęczna tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Górnik Łęczna in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Górnik Łęczna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Górnik Łęczna 3-1 at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.72 xG and Górnik Łęczna 0.88 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.92 / defence 1.08 against Górnik Łęczna attack 0.69 / defence 1.55, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 57% | Draw 24% | Górnik Łęczna 19%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 27%, Górnik Łęczna 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Górnik Łęczna's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Radomiak Radom arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.55. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.