Puszcza Niepołomice 1-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Puszcza Niepołomice at 39%, yet in-form Legia Warszawa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Puszcza Niepołomice host Legia Warszawa at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa (matchday 4). Kick-off is Sunday 13 August 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Puszcza Niepołomice — last 3 games: 1W 0D 2L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 2.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings (33%). Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Across their last 10 games, Legia Warszawa have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Legia Warszawa's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Puszcza Niepołomice's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Puszcza Niepołomice trading profile (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Legia Warszawa trading profile (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 67% versus Legia Warszawa 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Puszcza Niepołomice 67% | Legia Warszawa 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.11 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.829 / defence 1.000 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.005 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 0.951. Data: built from Puszcza Niepołomice's last 3 games and Legia Warszawa's last 36.
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 39% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 31%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 2.57 | Draw 3.32 | Legia Warszawa 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Puszcza Niepołomice as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Legia Warszawa (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Puszcza Niepołomice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Puszcza Niepołomice's last 3 games and Legia Warszawa's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Puszcza Niepołomice 67% (last 3 games) | Legia Warszawa 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 4 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 13 August 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 39% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 1.11 / Legia Warszawa 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.829 / def 1.000 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.005 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.422 / away 0.951 • Poisson stance: Puszcza Niepołomice (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Legia Warszawa xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa FAQs
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa?
Puszcza Niepołomice 1 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 4) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 39% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Puszcza Niepołomice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Legia Warszawa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Puszcza Niepołomice's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Puszcza Niepołomice's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Puszcza Niepołomice's last 3 games and Legia Warszawa's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Puszcza Niepołomice Win
39%
2.57
30%
3.32
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
2.07
0.95
Legia Warszawa xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
10%
9.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 12.1 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 0.95 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Puszcza Niepołomice come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 0D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 3.00 PPG from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W across their last five.
Legia Warszawa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Puszcza Niepołomice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 3.00 scored and 0.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Early Season
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Puszcza Niepołomice (Home) vs Legia Warszawa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Puszcza Niepołomice
Early Season
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa Form FAQs
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
Have Puszcza Niepołomice or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Puszcza Niepołomice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Puszcza Niepołomice's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
3
Draws
1
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Legia Warszawa?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, Legia Warszawa have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2025: Legia Warszawa 2-0 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Who has won more matches between Puszcza Niepołomice and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Puszcza Niepołomice 67%, Legia Warszawa 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Puszcza Niepołomice and 100% for Legia Warszawa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Puszcza Niepołomice keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Legia Warszawa in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Puszcza Niepołomice vs Legia Warszawa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Puszcza Niepołomice and Legia Warszawa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent matches and 33% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Puszcza Niepołomice and Legia Warszawa matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Puszcza Niepołomice's matches and 100% of Legia Warszawa's.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and Legia Warszawa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent matches and 100% of Legia Warszawa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Puszcza Niepołomice and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Puszcza Niepołomice and Legia Warszawa finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.11 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.95 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.83 / defence 1.00 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.00 / defence 0.94, drawn from 3/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 39% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 31%, with Puszcza Niepołomice to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 67%, Legia Warszawa 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Puszcza Niepołomice conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Legia Warszawa managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.