Pogon Szczecin 4-2 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 29 as Pogon Szczecin welcome Stal Mielec to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Pogon Szczecin at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stal Mielec — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Stal Mielec's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, Stal Mielec 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2022, ended 2–4 with Stal Mielec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Stal Mielec trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 63% versus Stal Mielec 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 53% | Stal Mielec 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.27 xG and Stal Mielec 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.043 / defence 1.195 | Stal Mielec attack 0.945 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.043. Data: 62 Pogon Szczecin games / 62 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 37% | Draw 30% | Stal Mielec 33%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Stal Mielec 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 60% | Stal Mielec 30%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 37% | Draw 30% | Stal Mielec 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.27 / Stal Mielec 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.043 / def 1.195 | Stal Mielec attack 0.945 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Stal Mielec xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec?
Pogon Szczecin 4 - 2 Stal Mielec.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 37% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec?
Record (3 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 2W | Draws 0 | Stal Mielec 1W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Stal Mielec (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 1.04x the league average against Stal Mielec's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stal Mielec's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
37%
2.68
30%
3.34
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.45
1.18
Stal Mielec xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
11%
8.72
9%
10.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.18 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 62 games, going 31W 19D 12L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Stal Mielec sit at 1.16 PPG from 62 outings (18W 18D 26L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-D across their last five.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Stal Mielec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 17W 7D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Stal Mielec have taken 0.93 points per game from 30 outings (7W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.13 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
Stal Mielec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 31W 19D 12L in their last 62 games (1.81 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 18W 18D 26L in their last 62 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Stal Mielec away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.93 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Pogon Szczecin have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when Pogon Szczecin won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Stal Mielec specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
2
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec?
From 8 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, Stal Mielec have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Stal Mielec 1-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 70%, Stal Mielec 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Pogon Szczecin) and 47% (Stal Mielec). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Stal Mielec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 53% of Stal Mielec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 47% of Stal Mielec's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Stal Mielec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Stal Mielec 4-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.27 xG and Stal Mielec 1.18 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stal Mielec outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.04 / defence 1.20 against Stal Mielec attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 37% | Draw 30% | Stal Mielec 33%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 53%, Stal Mielec 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.