Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 41%, yet in-form Gornik Zabrze provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze meet at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 February 2025 at 19:30 UK time.
Current Form
Pogon Szczecin's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Pogon Szczecin at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Gornik Zabrze have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Gornik Zabrze's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Gornik Zabrze are 0.60 PPG clear of Pogon Szczecin over their recent games (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Pogon Szczecin, 4 for Gornik Zabrze and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Aug 2024, ended Pogon Szczecin 0–1 Gornik Zabrze — a Gornik Zabrze win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Pogon Szczecin half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Gornik Zabrze half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 42% versus Gornik Zabrze 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 47% | Gornik Zabrze 45%). Note also that Gornik Zabrze surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Pogon Szczecin recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.32 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 0.973 / defence 0.800 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.159 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.164. Data: built from Pogon Szczecin's last 53 games and Gornik Zabrze's last 53.
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 41% | Draw 30% | Gornik Zabrze 29%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.46 | Draw 3.32 | Gornik Zabrze 3.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gornik Zabrze (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pogon Szczecin 30% (last 10 home games) | Gornik Zabrze 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 20 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Friday 7 February 2025 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 41% | Draw 30% | Gornik Zabrze 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.32 / Gornik Zabrze 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 0.973 / def 0.800 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.159 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Gornik Zabrze xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze FAQs
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 7 February 2025 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Pogon Szczecin 3 - 0 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 20) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 41% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 0.97x the league average against Gornik Zabrze's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gornik Zabrze's attack (1.16x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from Pogon Szczecin's last 53 games and Gornik Zabrze's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
41%
2.46
30%
3.32
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.40
1.08
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
8%
12.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.9 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.08 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 53 games, going 25W 10D 18L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Gornik Zabrze sit at 1.58 PPG from 53 outings (24W 12D 17L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.58 for Gornik Zabrze. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 16W 3D 7L across their last 26 home games, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Gornik Zabrze have taken 1.35 points per game from their last 26 away games (10W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.36 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Pogon Szczecin (Home) vs Gornik Zabrze (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze Form FAQs
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 25W 10D 18L in their last 53 games (1.60 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 24W 12D 17L in their last 53 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.96 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze, the earliest from July 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gornik Zabrze won Pogon Szczecin 1-4 Gornik Zabrze on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gornik Zabrze — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
5
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Gornik Zabrze have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 42%, Gornik Zabrze 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Pogon Szczecin) and 54% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 62% of Gornik Zabrze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 54% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 77% of Gornik Zabrze's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Gornik Zabrze.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Gornik Zabrze 3-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.32 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.08 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gornik Zabrze landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 0.97 / defence 0.80 against Gornik Zabrze attack 1.16 / defence 0.94, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 41% | Draw 30% | Gornik Zabrze 29%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 47%, Gornik Zabrze 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.60 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.