Pogon Szczecin 3-2 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cracovia Krakow make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 April 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Pogon Szczecin. A 0.50 PPG lead over Cracovia Krakow (1.50 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Pogon Szczecin, 0 for Cracovia Krakow and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 63% versus Cracovia Krakow 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 53% | Cracovia Krakow 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.26 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 0.904 / defence 1.141 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.984 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.035. Data: 60 Pogon Szczecin games / 60 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 37% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 32%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Cracovia Krakow 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 60% | Cracovia Krakow 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 37% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.26 / Cracovia Krakow 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 0.904 / def 1.141 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.984 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Cracovia Krakow xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Pogon Szczecin 3 - 2 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 37% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (2 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 0W | Draws 2 | Cracovia Krakow 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.98x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
37%
2.73
32%
3.16
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.42
1.16
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
11%
8.74
9%
11.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.3 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.16 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 29W 19D 12L from 60 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 21W 18D 21L across 60 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cracovia Krakow heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 16W 7D 6L from 29 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 8W 8D 13L across 29 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.15 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 29W 19D 12L in their last 60 games (1.77 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 21W 18D 21L in their last 60 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.90 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 3 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 1-5 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 69%, Cracovia Krakow 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Pogon Szczecin) and 38% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 45% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 38% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Cracovia Krakow 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Cracovia Krakow 3-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.26 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.16 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cracovia Krakow outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 0.90 / defence 1.14 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.98 / defence 1.14, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 37% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 32%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 53%, Cracovia Krakow 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.