Piast Gliwice 3-0 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice and Stal Mielec meet at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Monday 18 December 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Piast Gliwice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 7D 1L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Stal Mielec (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Stal Mielec have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Piast Gliwice have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 5 meetings, with Stal Mielec managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Piast Gliwice a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Piast Gliwice — key trading statistics (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Stal Mielec — key trading statistics (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 45% versus Stal Mielec 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 26% | Stal Mielec 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.32 xG and Stal Mielec 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.839 / defence 0.822 | Stal Mielec attack 1.002 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.241. Data: 51 Piast Gliwice games / 51 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 42% | Draw 31% | Stal Mielec 27%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Stal Mielec 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Piast Gliwice are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Piast Gliwice 50% | Stal Mielec 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Monday 18 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 42% | Draw 31% | Stal Mielec 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.32 / Stal Mielec 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.839 / def 0.822 | Stal Mielec attack 1.002 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Stal Mielec xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 18 December 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec?
Piast Gliwice 3 - 0 Stal Mielec.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 42% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Stal Mielec?
Record (5 meetings): Piast Gliwice 3W | Draws 2 | Stal Mielec 0W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Stal Mielec in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. Stal Mielec (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Stal Mielec's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Stal Mielec's attack (1.00x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
42%
2.39
31%
3.24
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.34
1.02
Stal Mielec xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
7%
13.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.02 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Piast Gliwice come into this having played 51 games, going 17W 20D 14L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-W. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stal Mielec sit at 1.27 PPG from 51 outings (17W 14D 20L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Piast Gliwice against 1.27 for Stal Mielec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Piast Gliwice's home form reads 8W 8D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Stal Mielec have taken 0.96 points per game from 24 outings (6W 5D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.20 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 17W 20D 14L in their last 51 games (1.39 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 17W 14D 20L in their last 51 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Stal Mielec away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.33 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Stal Mielec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Stal Mielec in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Piast Gliwice won 4-0 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stal Mielec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Piast Gliwice
3
Draws
1
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Stal Mielec?
From 8 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 4, Stal Mielec have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2025, when Piast Gliwice 2-2 Stal Mielec.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Stal Mielec?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 50%, Stal Mielec 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Piast Gliwice) and 42% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 38% of games; Stal Mielec in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Stal Mielec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 42% of Stal Mielec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 42% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Piast Gliwice run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Stal Mielec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Stal Mielec 3-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.32 xG and Stal Mielec 1.02 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Piast Gliwice beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stal Mielec landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.84 / defence 0.82 against Stal Mielec attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 42% | Draw 31% | Stal Mielec 27%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 26%, Stal Mielec 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.39 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.