Piast Gliwice 3-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice host Radomiak Radom at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach in Ekstraklasa (matchday 26). Kick-off is Friday 20 March 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Piast Gliwice — last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Piast Gliwice have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Radomiak Radom stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Radomiak Radom have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Piast Gliwice have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Piast Gliwice have won 1, Radomiak Radom 3, with 4 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended Piast Gliwice 0–1 Radomiak Radom — a Radomiak Radom win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 48% versus Radomiak Radom 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 41% | Radomiak Radom 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.24 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.850 / defence 1.038 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.958 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.156. Data: built from Piast Gliwice's last 59 games and Radomiak Radom's last 59.
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 37% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 33%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.70 | Draw 3.30 | Radomiak Radom 3.06. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — low conviction — though recent form (Piast Gliwice's last 10 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Piast Gliwice 50% (last 10 home games) | Radomiak Radom 90% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach • Kick-off: Friday 20 March 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 37% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Piast Gliwice 1.24 / Radomiak Radom 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.850 / def 1.038 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.958 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Radomiak Radom xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom FAQs
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 20 March 2026 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Piast Gliwice 3 - 1 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 26) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 37% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Piast Gliwice's attack at 0.85x the league average against Radomiak Radom's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Piast Gliwice's last 59 games and Radomiak Radom's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
37%
2.70
30%
3.30
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.39
1.15
Radomiak Radom xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
9%
10.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.15 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 20W 17D 22L from 59 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 19W 17D 23L across 59 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.31 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Piast Gliwice have managed 9W 11D 9L from their last 29 home games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 6W 9D 14L across their last 29 away games, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.51 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 69%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Piast Gliwice (Home) vs Radomiak Radom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom Form FAQs
What form are Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 20W 17D 22L in their last 59 games (1.31 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 19W 17D 23L in their last 59 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.31 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Piast Gliwice have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Piast Gliwice
4
Draws
3
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Piast Gliwice have won 3, Radomiak Radom have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Radomiak Radom 0-2 Piast Gliwice.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 41%, Radomiak Radom 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Piast Gliwice) and 69% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Piast Gliwice's games and 72% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 69% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 72% of Radomiak Radom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Piast Gliwice cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Radomiak Radom 3-1 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.24 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.15 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Piast Gliwice beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.85 / defence 1.04 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 37% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 33%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 41%, Radomiak Radom 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.31 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.