Nieciecza 1-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nieciecza at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nieciecza host Radomiak Radom at Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 April 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Nieciecza — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nieciecza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nieciecza at Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nieciecza at 1.10 PPG versus Radomiak Radom's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Nieciecza have won 0, Radomiak Radom 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Nieciecza in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nieciecza 65% versus Radomiak Radom 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nieciecza 54% | Radomiak Radom 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nieciecza 1.12 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nieciecza attack 0.854 / defence 1.236 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.770 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.025 / away 1.097. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Nieciecza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Nieciecza games / 26 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nieciecza 36% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 32%. Fair-value odds: Nieciecza 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Radomiak Radom 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nieciecza are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nieciecza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Nieciecza 60% | Radomiak Radom 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nieciecza 36% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Nieciecza 1.12 / Radomiak Radom 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Nieciecza attack 0.854 / def 1.236 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.770 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.025 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Nieciecza (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Nieciecza xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Radomiak Radom xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica.
What was the final score in Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom?
Nieciecza 1 - 1 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica.
What competition is Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Nieciecza a 36% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Nieciecza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom?
Record (1 meetings): Nieciecza 0W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 0W.
What form are Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom in?
Nieciecza (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nieciecza's attack rating (0.85) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Nieciecza's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nieciecza Win
36%
2.78
32%
3.13
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Nieciecza xG
Total xG
2.16
1.04
Radomiak Radom xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
10%
9.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Nieciecza and 1.04 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nieciecza's recent record stands at 5W 8D 13L from 26 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Nieciecza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 5L across 26 games — 1.58 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Radomiak Radom by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nieciecza heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nieciecza have managed 4W 4D 5L from 13 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 4W 5D 4L across 13 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Nieciecza are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.27 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nieciecza have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nieciecza
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Nieciecza have gone 5W 8D 13L in their last 26 games (0.88 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 10W 11D 5L in their last 26 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nieciecza at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Radomiak Radom's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nieciecza at home: 1.23 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Nieciecza or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nieciecza have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Nieciecza's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nieciecza
4
Draws
0
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom?
From 4 meetings on record, Nieciecza have won 0, Radomiak Radom have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Nieciecza 1-1 Radomiak Radom.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nieciecza see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nieciecza 69%, Radomiak Radom 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Nieciecza) and 46% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 38%; Radomiak Radom in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nieciecza home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nieciecza play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Nieciecza's recent matches and 38% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Nieciecza's recent games and 46% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Nieciecza have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.12 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.04 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.85 / defence 1.24 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.77 / defence 1.28, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 36% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 32%, with Nieciecza to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 54%, Radomiak Radom 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nieciecza's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Radomiak Radom arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.