Motor Lublin 2-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Motor Lublin at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Motor Lublin Arena to face Motor Lublin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 February 2026 at 11:15 UTC.
Current Form
Motor Lublin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Motor Lublin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Motor Lublin's home record at Motor Lublin Arena: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Motor Lublin against 1.10 for Pogon Szczecin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Motor Lublin have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Pogon Szczecin in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Motor Lublin lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2025, ended 1–4 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Motor Lublin — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Motor Lublin 58% versus Pogon Szczecin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Motor Lublin 52% | Pogon Szczecin 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Motor Lublin 1.62 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Motor Lublin attack 0.939 / defence 1.050 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.821 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.237. Data: 52 Motor Lublin games / 52 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Motor Lublin 49% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 24%. Fair-value odds: Motor Lublin 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Pogon Szczecin 4.17. Motor Lublin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Motor Lublin at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Motor Lublin if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Motor Lublin 60% | Pogon Szczecin 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Motor Lublin Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Motor Lublin 49% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Motor Lublin 1.62 / Pogon Szczecin 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Motor Lublin attack 0.939 / def 1.050 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.821 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Motor Lublin (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Motor Lublin xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Pogon Szczecin xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Motor Lublin Arena.
What was the final score in Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Motor Lublin 2 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Motor Lublin Arena.
What competition is Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Motor Lublin a 49% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Motor Lublin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (3 meetings): Motor Lublin 1W | Draws 0 | Pogon Szczecin 2W.
What form are Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin in?
Motor Lublin (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Motor Lublin's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (0.82x) against Motor Lublin's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Motor Lublin Win
49%
2.04
27%
3.64
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Motor Lublin xG
Total xG
2.69
1.07
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
5%
21.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Motor Lublin and 1.07 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Motor Lublin's recent record stands at 18W 16D 18L from 52 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Motor Lublin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin, meanwhile, have gone 23W 10D 19L across 52 games — 1.52 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Motor Lublin against 1.52 for Pogon Szczecin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Motor Lublin have managed 9W 10D 7L from 26 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pogon Szczecin's away record stands at 5W 7D 14L across 26 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Motor Lublin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Motor Lublin are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.67 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Motor Lublin
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Motor Lublin have gone 18W 16D 18L in their last 52 games (1.35 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 23W 10D 19L in their last 52 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Motor Lublin at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Motor Lublin's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Motor Lublin at home: 1.42 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 3-0 on 14 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Motor Lublin have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Motor Lublin
0
Draws
3
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin?
From 5 meetings on record, Motor Lublin have won 2, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 3-1 Motor Lublin.
Who has won more matches between Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Motor Lublin 62%, Pogon Szczecin 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Motor Lublin) and 50% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Motor Lublin home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Motor Lublin play Pogon Szczecin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Motor Lublin's games and 54% of Pogon Szczecin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Motor Lublin's recent games and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Motor Lublin have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Motor Lublin edge out Pogon Szczecin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Motor Lublin beat Pogon Szczecin 2-1 at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.62 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.07 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 0.94 / defence 1.05 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.82 / defence 1.10, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 49% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 24%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 52%, Pogon Szczecin 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Motor Lublin's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Motor Lublin 1.35 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Motor Lublin win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.