Legia Warszawa 0-1 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 21 as Legia Warszawa welcome Warta Poznań to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 February 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this season: 4W 0D 5L from 9 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Warta Poznań stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań away from home this season: 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Legia Warszawa) versus 1.00 (Warta Poznań). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Legia Warszawa have won 1, Warta Poznań 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 2–0 with Legia Warszawa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Legia Warszawa trading profile (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Warta Poznań trading profile (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 42% versus Warta Poznań 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Legia Warszawa 53% | Warta Poznań 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.18 xG and Warta Poznań 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.932 / defence 1.266 | Warta Poznań attack 0.717 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.205. Data: 19 Legia Warszawa games / 20 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 38% | Draw 28% | Warta Poznań 33%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Warta Poznań 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 33% | Warta Poznań 22% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 38% | Draw 28% | Warta Poznań 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.18 / Warta Poznań 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.932 / def 1.266 | Warta Poznań attack 0.717 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Warta Poznań xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań?
Legia Warszawa 0 - 1 Warta Poznań.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 38% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań?
Record (1 meetings): Legia Warszawa 1W | Draws 0 | Warta Poznań 0W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Warta Poznań (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Warta Poznań's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Warta Poznań's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
38%
2.63
28%
3.51
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.28
1.09
Warta Poznań xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
10%
9.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.09 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 6W 0D 13L from 19 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Warta Poznań, meanwhile, have gone 3W 7D 9L across 19 games — 0.84 PPG, with L-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 0.95 PPG, Warta Poznań on 0.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 3W 0D 5L from 8 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Warta Poznań's away record stands at 2W 1D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 0.68 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 6W 0D 13L in their last 19 games (0.95 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 3W 7D 9L in their last 19 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Warta Poznań away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.12 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Warta Poznań specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
1
Draws
2
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań?
From 6 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Warta Poznań have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2024, when Warta Poznań 0-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Legia Warszawa 38% BTTS, Warta Poznań 12%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Legia Warszawa) and 25% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa have failed to score in 38% of games; Warta Poznań in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 12% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 25% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Warta Poznań defy the odds to beat Legia Warszawa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań beat Legia Warszawa 0-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.18 xG and Warta Poznań 1.09 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Legia Warszawa fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.93 / defence 1.27 against Warta Poznań attack 0.72 / defence 1.08, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 38% | Draw 28% | Warta Poznań 33%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Warta Poznań win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 53%, Warta Poznań 21%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 0.95 PPG, Warta Poznań 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Warta Poznań win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.