Legia Warszawa 1-1 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 10 as Legia Warszawa welcome Gornik Zabrze to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 19:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gornik Zabrze stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Legia Warszawa carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Legia Warszawa: 4 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Gornik Zabrze, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 3–1 with Legia Warszawa winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Legia Warszawa and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Gornik Zabrze in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 56% versus Gornik Zabrze 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 49% | Gornik Zabrze 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 2.00 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.212 / defence 1.146 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.039 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 0.987. Data: 43 Legia Warszawa games / 43 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 56% | Draw 22% | Gornik Zabrze 22%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Gornik Zabrze 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 60% | Gornik Zabrze 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 56% | Draw 22% | Gornik Zabrze 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG Legia Warszawa 2.00 / Gornik Zabrze 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.212 / def 1.146 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.039 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.554 / away 0.987 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Gornik Zabrze xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Legia Warszawa 1 - 1 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 56% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (6 meetings): Legia Warszawa 4W | Draws 1 | Gornik Zabrze 1W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Gornik Zabrze in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 1.21x the league average against Gornik Zabrze's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
56%
1.77
22%
4.65
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
3.18
1.18
Gornik Zabrze xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
3%
33.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.18 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Legia Warszawa have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 20W 13D 10L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gornik Zabrze's form line: 18W 10D 15L from 43 games, 1.49 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.70 PPG, Gornik Zabrze on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Legia Warszawa have posted 1.77 PPG from 22 outings (11W 6D 5L).
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 7W 4D 11L from 22 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.33 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 20W 13D 10L in their last 43 games (1.70 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 18W 10D 15L in their last 43 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.77 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Legia Warszawa and Gornik Zabrze runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Legia Warszawa
3
Draws
2
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Gornik Zabrze?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 5, Gornik Zabrze have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-1 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Gornik Zabrze?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 59%, Gornik Zabrze 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Legia Warszawa) and 59% (Gornik Zabrze). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Legia Warszawa's games and 64% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Legia Warszawa's matches and 59% of Gornik Zabrze's.
Do Legia Warszawa and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa and Gornik Zabrze share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa and Gornik Zabrze finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 2.00 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.18 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Legia Warszawa fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.21 / defence 1.15 against Gornik Zabrze attack 1.04 / defence 1.06, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 56% | Draw 22% | Gornik Zabrze 22%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 49%, Gornik Zabrze 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.70 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.