Lechia Gdansk 0-0 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk plays host to Lechia Gdansk versus Slask Wroclaw in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 1 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lechia Gdansk have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Lechia Gdansk have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
Slask Wroclaw (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slask Wroclaw's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Lechia Gdansk, 1.00 for Slask Wroclaw — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Lechia Gdansk 1W, Slask Wroclaw 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Slask Wroclaw winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Lechia Gdansk half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Slask Wroclaw half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 46% versus Slask Wroclaw 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 52% | Slask Wroclaw 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.41 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.043 / defence 1.057 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.935 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.037. Data: 59 Lechia Gdansk games / 59 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 45% | Draw 29% | Slask Wroclaw 26%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Slask Wroclaw 3.85. Lechia Gdansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lechia Gdansk at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 40% | Slask Wroclaw 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 45% | Draw 29% | Slask Wroclaw 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.41 / Slask Wroclaw 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.043 / def 1.057 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.935 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Slask Wroclaw xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw?
Lechia Gdansk 0 - 0 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 45% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (3 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 1W | Draws 1 | Slask Wroclaw 1W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lechia Gdansk's attack at 1.04x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slask Wroclaw's attack (0.94x) against Lechia Gdansk's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
45%
2.23
29%
3.48
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.43
1.02
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
6%
15.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.02 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lechia Gdansk's recent record stands at 23W 13D 23L from 59 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw, meanwhile, have gone 14W 23D 22L across 59 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Lechia Gdansk against 1.10 for Slask Wroclaw. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lechia Gdansk have managed 16W 7D 6L from 29 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Lechia Gdansk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Slask Wroclaw's away record stands at 7W 9D 13L across 29 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.14 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw in 63%.
Last 59 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 23W 13D 23L in their last 59 games (1.39 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 14W 23D 22L in their last 59 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 1.90 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lechia Gdansk
3
Draws
1
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw?
From 6 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2024, when Lechia Gdansk 1-0 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw?
Lechia Gdansk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 41%, Slask Wroclaw 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lechia Gdansk) and 41% (Slask Wroclaw).
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Slask Wroclaw in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Slask Wroclaw?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 62% of Slask Wroclaw's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 41% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lechia Gdansk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw finished level at 0-0 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.41 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.02 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Slask Wroclaw landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 45% | Draw 29% | Slask Wroclaw 26%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 52%, Slask Wroclaw 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.39 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.