Lechia Gdansk 1-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates Radomiak Radom at 42% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Radomiak Radom travel to Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk to take on Lechia Gdansk in Ekstraklasa (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024 at 14:45 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 7 matches, Lechia Gdansk stand at 1W 2D 4L — 0.71 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 2.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.14 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Lechia Gdansk's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 2L across their last 3 home games (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Radomiak Radom — last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.71 PPG (Lechia Gdansk) versus 0.90 (Radomiak Radom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 67% of Lechia Gdansk's games and 60% of Radomiak Radom's (from Lechia Gdansk's last 3 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

Despite the home advantage, Radomiak Radom have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Lechia Gdansk.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2023, ended Lechia Gdansk 1–3 Radomiak Radom — a Radomiak Radom win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Radomiak Radom have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Profile

Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (last 7 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.

Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (last 7 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lechia Gdansk 86% and Radomiak Radom 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lechia Gdansk 57% | Radomiak Radom 100%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.38 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.733 / defence 1.301 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.131 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.093. Lechia Gdansk's attack rating of 0.733 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.38. Radomiak Radom's defence rating of 1.305 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lechia Gdansk's projected output up. Lechia Gdansk's defence rating of 1.301 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Radomiak Radom's projected output up. Data: built from Lechia Gdansk's last 7 games and Radomiak Radom's last 40.

Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 32% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 42%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 3.14 | Draw 3.83 | Radomiak Radom 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.38 / 1.61) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Radomiak Radom 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Lechia Gdansk's last 3 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lechia Gdansk 67% (last 3 home games) | Radomiak Radom 60% (last 10 away games).

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