ŁKS Łódź 3-2 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ŁKS Łódź at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this ŁKS Łódź vs Stal Mielec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 34 as ŁKS Łódź welcome Stal Mielec to Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 May 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, ŁKS Łódź have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, ŁKS Łódź have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stal Mielec — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Stal Mielec's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — ŁKS Łódź at 0.80 PPG versus Stal Mielec's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for ŁKS Łódź, 1 for Stal Mielec and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2024, ended 0–1 with Stal Mielec winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
ŁKS Łódź in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ŁKS Łódź 54% versus Stal Mielec 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ŁKS Łódź 61% | Stal Mielec 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ŁKS Łódź 1.60 xG and Stal Mielec 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.964 / defence 1.522 | Stal Mielec attack 0.931 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.113. Data: 33 ŁKS Łódź games / 67 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 37% | Draw 27% | Stal Mielec 36%. Fair-value odds: ŁKS Łódź 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Stal Mielec 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, ŁKS Łódź are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ŁKS Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ŁKS Łódź 80% | Stal Mielec 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ŁKS Łódź vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 37% | Draw 27% | Stal Mielec 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG ŁKS Łódź 1.60 / Stal Mielec 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.964 / def 1.522 | Stal Mielec attack 0.931 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: ŁKS Łódź (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
ŁKS Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Stal Mielec xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ŁKS Łódź vs Stal Mielec kick off?
ŁKS Łódź vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What was the final score in ŁKS Łódź vs Stal Mielec?
ŁKS Łódź 3 - 2 Stal Mielec.
Where is ŁKS Łódź vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What competition is ŁKS Łódź vs Stal Mielec part of?
ŁKS Łódź vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win ŁKS Łódź vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives ŁKS Łódź a 37% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making ŁKS Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in ŁKS Łódź vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both ŁKS Łódź and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will ŁKS Łódź vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Stal Mielec?
Record (1 meetings): ŁKS Łódź 0W | Draws 0 | Stal Mielec 1W.
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Stal Mielec in?
ŁKS Łódź (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Stal Mielec (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from ŁKS Łódź's attack rating (0.96) and Stal Mielec's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stal Mielec's attack versus ŁKS Łódź's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ŁKS Łódź Win
37%
2.69
27%
3.72
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
ŁKS Łódź xG
Total xG
3.18
1.58
Stal Mielec xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
8%
13.05
7%
13.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ŁKS Łódź vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are ŁKS Łódź and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for ŁKS Łódź and 1.58 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for ŁKS Łódź vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
ŁKS Łódź come into this having played 33 games, going 5W 6D 22L for 0.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Stal Mielec sit at 1.30 PPG from 33 outings (11W 10D 12L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five.
Stal Mielec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of ŁKS Łódź — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
ŁKS Łódź's home form reads 4W 5D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.64 PPG overall — ŁKS Łódź are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Stal Mielec have taken 0.81 points per game from 16 outings (3W 4D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stal Mielec's season.
Goals in Recent Form
ŁKS Łódź are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 2.21 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.21 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ŁKS Łódź
Current Season
Stal Mielec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
ŁKS Łódź have gone 5W 6D 22L in their last 33 games (0.64 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 11W 10D 12L in their last 33 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ŁKS Łódź at home or Stal Mielec away?
ŁKS Łódź's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ŁKS Łódź at home: 1.06 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
ŁKS Łódź
0
Draws
1
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Stal Mielec?
From 2 meetings on record, ŁKS Łódź have won 1, Stal Mielec have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ŁKS Łódź and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when ŁKS Łódź 3-2 Stal Mielec.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ŁKS Łódź 62%, Stal Mielec 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (ŁKS Łódź) and 50% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: ŁKS Łódź have failed to score in 31% of games; Stal Mielec in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ŁKS Łódź home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ŁKS Łódź play Stal Mielec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of ŁKS Łódź's games and 50% of Stal Mielec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ŁKS Łódź vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of ŁKS Łódź's recent games and 50% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ŁKS Łódź and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
ŁKS Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as ŁKS Łódź edge out Stal Mielec 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ŁKS Łódź beat Stal Mielec 3-2 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ŁKS Łódź 1.60 xG and Stal Mielec 1.58 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. ŁKS Łódź beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ŁKS Łódź attack 0.96 / defence 1.52 against Stal Mielec attack 0.93 / defence 1.12, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ŁKS Łódź 37% | Draw 27% | Stal Mielec 36%, with ŁKS Łódź to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ŁKS Łódź 61%, Stal Mielec 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stal Mielec arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.64. Form was overturned, with ŁKS Łódź winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. ŁKS Łódź (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.