Korona Kielce 0-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suzuki Arena plays host to Korona Kielce versus Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 12 November 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Korona Kielce's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Korona Kielce's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 4L across 7 games at Suzuki Arena this term (0.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 3L across 8 road games this term (1.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Widzew Łódź arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Korona Kielce — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 62% versus Widzew Łódź 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Korona Kielce 44% | Widzew Łódź 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.01 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 0.759 / defence 1.160 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.838 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.237. Korona Kielce's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Korona Kielce games / 16 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 31% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 40%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Widzew Łódź 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Korona Kielce 71% | Widzew Łódź 25%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Suzuki Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 31% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Korona Kielce 1.01 / Widzew Łódź 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 0.759 / def 1.160 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.838 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Widzew Łódź xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Suzuki Arena.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź?
Korona Kielce 0 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Suzuki Arena.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 31% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź in?
Korona Kielce (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Korona Kielce's attack at 0.76x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (0.84x) against Korona Kielce's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
31%
3.25
29%
3.47
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
2.21
1.20
Widzew Łódź xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
9%
10.82
15%
6.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.20 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Korona Kielce's recent record stands at 3W 4D 9L from 16 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 8W 2D 6L across 16 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Widzew Łódź by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Korona Kielce heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Korona Kielce have managed 1W 2D 4L from 7 games — 0.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Widzew Łódź's away record stands at 4W 1D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.31 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Korona Kielce have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 3W 4D 9L in their last 16 games (0.81 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 8W 2D 6L in their last 16 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Widzew Łódź's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 0.71 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Korona Kielce or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Korona Kielce have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Korona Kielce go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Korona Kielce won 0-3 on 27 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Korona Kielce have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Korona Kielce
1
Draws
2
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Korona Kielce have won 5, Widzew Łódź have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Korona Kielce 1-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Widzew Łódź tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 71%, Widzew Łódź 14% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Korona Kielce) and 43% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź in 57%; Korona Kielce have failed to score in 29% of games; Widzew Łódź in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Korona Kielce play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 14% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 43% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Korona Kielce have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 29% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Widzew Łódź edge out Korona Kielce 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Korona Kielce 0-1 at Suzuki Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.01 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.20 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Korona Kielce fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.76 / defence 1.16 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.84 / defence 1.00, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 31% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 40%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 44%, Widzew Łódź 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Widzew Łódź arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.81. Form held, and they took the win. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.