Korona Kielce 2-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Korona Kielce at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Korona Kielce face Widzew Łódź.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski plays host to Korona Kielce versus Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa (matchday 28). Kick-off: Friday 11 April 2025 at 20:30 UK time.
Current Form
Korona Kielce's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Korona Kielce's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Widzew Łódź's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Korona Kielce, 2 for Widzew Łódź and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2024, ended Korona Kielce 1–0 Widzew Łódź — a Korona Kielce win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Korona Kielce — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Widzew Łódź — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 52% versus Widzew Łódź 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Korona Kielce 36% | Widzew Łódź 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.44 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 0.890 / defence 1.072 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.000 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.158. Data: built from Korona Kielce's last 61 games and Widzew Łódź's last 61.
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 42% | Draw 26% | Widzew Łódź 33%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 2.40 | Draw 3.88 | Widzew Łódź 3.07. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Korona Kielce are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Korona Kielce if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Korona Kielce's last 10 home games and Widzew Łódź's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Korona Kielce 40% (last 10 home games) | Widzew Łódź 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 11 April 2025 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 42% | Draw 26% | Widzew Łódź 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Korona Kielce 1.44 / Widzew Łódź 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 0.890 / def 1.072 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.000 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Korona Kielce (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Widzew Łódź xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź FAQs
What time does Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 11 April 2025 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź?
Korona Kielce 2 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 28) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 42% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Korona Kielce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Korona Kielce's attack at 0.89x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (1.00x) against Korona Kielce's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Korona Kielce's last 61 games and Widzew Łódź's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Korona Kielce Win
42%
2.40
26%
3.88
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
2.68
1.24
Widzew Łódź xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
12%
8.31
8%
12.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.24 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Korona Kielce's recent record stands at 16W 23D 22L from 61 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Widzew Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 25L across 61 games — 1.34 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Korona Kielce against 1.34 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Korona Kielce have managed 11W 10D 9L from their last 30 home games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Widzew Łódź's away record stands at 7W 10D 13L across their last 30 away games, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.26 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Korona Kielce (Home) vs Widzew Łódź (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Korona Kielce
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź Form FAQs
What form are Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 16W 23D 22L in their last 61 games (1.16 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 23W 13D 25L in their last 61 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Korona Kielce's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.43 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź, the earliest from November 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Korona Kielce have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Korona Kielce won Widzew Łódź 0-3 Korona Kielce on 27 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Korona Kielce have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Korona Kielce
1
Draws
2
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Korona Kielce have won 6, Widzew Łódź have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Widzew Łódź 1-2 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 50%, Widzew Łódź 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Korona Kielce) and 53% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Korona Kielce have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Korona Kielce's games and 73% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 53% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 83% of Widzew Łódź's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Korona Kielce edge out Widzew Łódź 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Korona Kielce beat Widzew Łódź 2-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.44 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.24 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.89 / defence 1.07 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 42% | Draw 26% | Widzew Łódź 33%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 36%, Widzew Łódź 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.16 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.