Korona Kielce 1-3 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Korona Kielce at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Korona Kielce face Radomiak Radom.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion Miejski to face Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Sunday 30 March 2025 at 12:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Korona Kielce have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Korona Kielce have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Radomiak Radom's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Korona Kielce against 1.50 for Radomiak Radom. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Korona Kielce edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2024, ended Korona Kielce 0–4 Radomiak Radom — a Radomiak Radom win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Korona Kielce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 52% versus Radomiak Radom 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Korona Kielce 36% | Radomiak Radom 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.57 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 0.927 / defence 0.901 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.008 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.177. Data: built from Korona Kielce's last 59 games and Radomiak Radom's last 59.
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 49% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 26%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 2.04 | Draw 3.97 | Radomiak Radom 3.87. Korona Kielce hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Korona Kielce as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Korona Kielce if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Korona Kielce 40% (last 10 home games) | Radomiak Radom 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 30 March 2025 at 12:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 49% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Korona Kielce 1.57 / Radomiak Radom 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 0.927 / def 0.901 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.008 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Korona Kielce (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Radomiak Radom xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom FAQs
What time does Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 12:15 UK time on Sunday 30 March 2025 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Korona Kielce 1 - 3 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 26) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 49% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Korona Kielce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Korona Kielce's attack rating (0.93) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (1.01x) against Korona Kielce's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from Korona Kielce's last 59 games and Radomiak Radom's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Korona Kielce Win
49%
2.04
25%
3.97
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
2.64
1.07
Radomiak Radom xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
5%
18.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.07 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Korona Kielce come into this having played 59 games, going 16W 23D 20L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.17 PPG from 59 outings (19W 12D 28L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Korona Kielce against 1.17 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Korona Kielce's home form reads 11W 10D 8L across their last 29 home games, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 1.14 points per game from their last 29 away games (10W 3D 16L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.27 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Korona Kielce (Home) vs Radomiak Radom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Korona Kielce
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom Form FAQs
What form are Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 16W 23D 20L in their last 59 games (1.20 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 19W 12D 28L in their last 59 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Korona Kielce's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.48 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Korona Kielce won Korona Kielce 4-0 Radomiak Radom on 19 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Korona Kielce have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Korona Kielce
1
Draws
3
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Korona Kielce have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Korona Kielce 0-2 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 48%, Radomiak Radom 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Korona Kielce) and 59% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Korona Kielce keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Korona Kielce have failed to score in 28% of games; Radomiak Radom in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 41% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 59% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 79% of Radomiak Radom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Korona Kielce.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Korona Kielce 1-3 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.57 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.07 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.93 / defence 0.90 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.01 / defence 1.17, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 49% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 26%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Radomiak Radom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 36%, Radomiak Radom 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.20 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.