Jagiellonia 2-1 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jagiellonia host Zaglebie Lubin at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Jagiellonia) versus 1.10 (Zaglebie Lubin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Jagiellonia have won 1, Zaglebie Lubin 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Jagiellonia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 62% versus Zaglebie Lubin 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 54% | Zaglebie Lubin 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.08 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.812 / defence 1.121 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.755 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.023 / away 1.097. Zaglebie Lubin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing Jagiellonia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Jagiellonia games / 26 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 37% | Draw 34% | Zaglebie Lubin 29%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Jagiellonia 70% | Zaglebie Lubin 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 37% | Draw 34% | Zaglebie Lubin 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Jagiellonia 1.08 / Zaglebie Lubin 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 0.812 / def 1.121 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.755 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.023 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Zaglebie Lubin xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Jagiellonia 2 - 1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 37% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (1 meetings): Jagiellonia 1W | Draws 0 | Zaglebie Lubin 0W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jagiellonia's attack at 0.81x the league average against Zaglebie Lubin's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
37%
2.70
34%
2.96
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.01
0.93
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 12.5 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.93 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jagiellonia come into this having played 26 games, going 7W 9D 10L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.08 PPG from 26 outings (8W 4D 14L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jagiellonia on 1.15 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jagiellonia's home form reads 4W 6D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 0.85 points per game from 13 outings (3W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.04 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 7W 9D 10L in their last 26 games (1.15 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 8W 4D 14L in their last 26 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.38 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jagiellonia won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Jagiellonia
3
Draws
1
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 6, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 62%, Zaglebie Lubin 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Jagiellonia) and 62% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 38%; Zaglebie Lubin in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 31% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 62% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jagiellonia edge out Zaglebie Lubin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.08 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.93 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 0.81 / defence 1.12 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.76 / defence 1.30, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 37% | Draw 34% | Zaglebie Lubin 29%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 54%, Zaglebie Lubin 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.15 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.