Jagiellonia 2-2 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 38%, yet the head-to-head data favours Pogon Szczecin — this Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski plays host to Jagiellonia versus Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 30). Kick-off: Friday 26 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Jagiellonia have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Jagiellonia have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Pogon Szczecin away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.70 for Pogon Szczecin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Pogon Szczecin, who have 4 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Jagiellonia 1–2 Pogon Szczecin — a Pogon Szczecin win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Pogon Szczecin have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 2.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 61%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Pogon Szczecin half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 71% and Pogon Szczecin 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 62% | Pogon Szczecin 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Jagiellonia surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Pogon Szczecin have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.53 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.388 / defence 1.110 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.172 / defence 0.757. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.108. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.388 — their 1.53 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Pogon Szczecin bring a tight defence (rating 0.757, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Jagiellonia's projected output down. Data: built from Jagiellonia's last 63 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 63.
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 38% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 34%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.64 | Draw 3.59 | Pogon Szczecin 2.92. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.53 / 1.44) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Jagiellonia's last 10 home games and Pogon Szczecin's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Jagiellonia 50% (last 10 home games) | Pogon Szczecin 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 26 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 38% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Jagiellonia 1.53 / Pogon Szczecin 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.388 / def 1.110 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.172 / def 0.757 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Pogon Szczecin xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin FAQs
What time does Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 26 April 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin?
Jagiellonia 2 - 2 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 30) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 38% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jagiellonia's attack rating (1.39) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (1.17x) against Jagiellonia's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from Jagiellonia's last 63 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
38%
2.64
28%
3.59
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.97
1.44
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
9%
11.14
7%
13.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.3 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.44 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jagiellonia come into this having played 63 games, going 25W 21D 17L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.70 PPG from 63 outings (31W 14D 18L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.70 for Pogon Szczecin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Jagiellonia's home form reads 18W 6D 7L across their last 31 home games, a 1.94 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Jagiellonia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.61 points per game from their last 31 away games (14W 8D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.76 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Current Season
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
Jagiellonia (Home) vs Pogon Szczecin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jagiellonia
Current Season
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
❓ Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin Form FAQs
What form are Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 25W 21D 17L in their last 63 games (1.52 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 31W 14D 18L in their last 63 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.94 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Jagiellonia have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won Pogon Szczecin 4-1 Jagiellonia on 23 Oct 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jagiellonia
3
Draws
4
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jagiellonia have won 3, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Jagiellonia 3-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 68%, Pogon Szczecin 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Jagiellonia) and 45% (Pogon Szczecin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 32%; Pogon Szczecin in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Jagiellonia's games and 48% of Pogon Szczecin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Jagiellonia's matches and 45% of Pogon Szczecin's.
Do Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 48% of Pogon Szczecin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 30, as Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.53 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.44 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.39 / defence 1.11 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.17 / defence 0.76, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 38% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 34%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 62%, Pogon Szczecin 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.52 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.