Jagiellonia 1-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cracovia Krakow make the trip to Stadion Miejski to face Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Jagiellonia (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cracovia Krakow's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Jagiellonia's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Cracovia Krakow's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Cracovia Krakow in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Jagiellonia, 2 for Cracovia Krakow and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Jagiellonia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 68% versus Cracovia Krakow 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 53% | Cracovia Krakow 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.92 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.191 / defence 1.072 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.004 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.050. Cracovia Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Jagiellonia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Jagiellonia games / 66 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 55% | Draw 23% | Cracovia Krakow 21%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Cracovia Krakow 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Cracovia Krakow lead the H2H ledger, but Jagiellonia carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 80% | Cracovia Krakow 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 55% | Draw 23% | Cracovia Krakow 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Jagiellonia 1.92 / Cracovia Krakow 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.191 / def 1.072 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.004 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Cracovia Krakow xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Jagiellonia 1 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 55% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (3 meetings): Jagiellonia 0W | Draws 1 | Cracovia Krakow 2W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (1.00x) against Jagiellonia's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
55%
1.82
23%
4.26
21%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
3.05
1.13
Cracovia Krakow xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.65
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
3%
31.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.13 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 66 outings, Jagiellonia have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 18W 26D 22L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 23W 19D 24L from 66 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.33 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jagiellonia have posted 1.52 PPG from 33 outings (13W 11D 9L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 9W 9D 15L from 33 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.17 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Current Season
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 18W 26D 22L in their last 66 games (1.21 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 23W 19D 24L in their last 66 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.52 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 5-2 on 10 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jagiellonia
4
Draws
4
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 2, Cracovia Krakow have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 70%, Cracovia Krakow 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Jagiellonia) and 42% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Jagiellonia's games and 48% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 42% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.92 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.13 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.19 / defence 1.07 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.00 / defence 1.23, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 55% | Draw 23% | Cracovia Krakow 21%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 53%, Cracovia Krakow 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.21 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.