Gornik Zabrze 5-1 Arka Gdynia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gornik Zabrze vs Arka Gdynia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Arka Gdynia make the trip to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla to face Gornik Zabrze in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 November 2025 at 11:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gornik Zabrze have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gornik Zabrze have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Arka Gdynia (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Arka Gdynia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Arka Gdynia have posted 0W 1D 6L from 7 away outings — 0.14 PPG. Away from home they average 0.14 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.14 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Gornik Zabrze's favour (2.00 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Gornik Zabrze goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Arka Gdynia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 54% versus Arka Gdynia 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 54% | Arka Gdynia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 2.33 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.072 / defence 0.904 | Arka Gdynia attack 0.483 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.173. Arka Gdynia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing Gornik Zabrze's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Gornik Zabrze games / 13 Arka Gdynia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 78% | Draw 17% | Arka Gdynia 6%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 1.28 | Draw 5.88 | Arka Gdynia 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Gornik Zabrze (78%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gornik Zabrze at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 50% | Arka Gdynia 14% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Arka Gdynia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 78% | Draw 17% | Arka Gdynia 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 37% | xG Gornik Zabrze 2.33 / Arka Gdynia 0.51 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.072 / def 0.904 | Arka Gdynia attack 0.483 / def 1.335 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
0.51
Arka Gdynia xG
37%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Arka Gdynia kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Arka Gdynia kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Arka Gdynia?
Gornik Zabrze 5 - 1 Arka Gdynia.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Arka Gdynia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Arka Gdynia part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Arka Gdynia is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Arka Gdynia?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 78% chance of winning, Arka Gdynia a 6% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Arka Gdynia?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Arka Gdynia will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Arka Gdynia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Arka Gdynia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Arka Gdynia in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Arka Gdynia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gornik Zabrze's attack rating (1.07) and Arka Gdynia's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Arka Gdynia's attack (0.48x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.51.
These ratings are built from 47/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 3-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
78%
1.29
17%
6.05
6%
17.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
3 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.84
0.51
Arka Gdynia xG
1.29
78%
Home win
6.05
17%
Draw
17.12
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
60%
1.67
10%
10.23
Win to Nil
47%
2.15
1%
175.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 7.0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 15.8 | 8.1 | 2.1 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 3 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Arka Gdynia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Arka Gdynia expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.51 for Arka Gdynia, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Arka Gdynia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, Gornik Zabrze have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 8W 2D 3L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arka Gdynia's form line: 4W 3D 6L from 13 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Arka Gdynia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Gornik Zabrze are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Arka Gdynia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gornik Zabrze have posted 2.14 PPG from 7 outings (5W 0D 2L).
On the road, Arka Gdynia have gone 0W 1D 6L from 7 away games — 0.14 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Arka Gdynia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Arka Gdynia are on 0.69 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Arka Gdynia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Arka Gdynia in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 8W 2D 3L in their last 13 games (2.00 PPG), while Arka Gdynia have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Arka Gdynia away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 2.14 PPG; Arka Gdynia away: 0.14 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Arka Gdynia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Arka Gdynia in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Gornik Zabrze
1
Draws
0
Arka Gdynia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Arka Gdynia?
From 2 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 1, Arka Gdynia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Arka Gdynia last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Arka Gdynia 0-0 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Arka Gdynia?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Arka Gdynia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 57%, Arka Gdynia 14% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Gornik Zabrze) and 43% (Arka Gdynia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 29% of games; Arka Gdynia in 86%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Arka Gdynia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Arka Gdynia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 14% of Arka Gdynia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Arka Gdynia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Gornik Zabrze's matches and 43% of Arka Gdynia's.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Arka Gdynia tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Arka Gdynia in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gornik Zabrze run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Arka Gdynia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Arka Gdynia 5-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 2.33 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.51 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.07 / defence 0.90 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.48 / defence 1.33, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 78% | Draw 17% | Arka Gdynia 6%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 78%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 54%, Arka Gdynia 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Arka Gdynia's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gornik Zabrze arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.