GKS Katowice 1-0 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GKS Katowice at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 27 as GKS Katowice welcome Wisla Plock to Stadion miejski w Katowicach. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 11:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, GKS Katowice have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for GKS Katowice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GKS Katowice's home record at Stadion miejski w Katowicach: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Plock stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, GKS Katowice have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, GKS Katowice have won 0, Wisla Plock 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
GKS Katowice in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GKS Katowice 42% versus Wisla Plock 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GKS Katowice 50% | Wisla Plock 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GKS Katowice 1.55 xG and Wisla Plock 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GKS Katowice attack 1.089 / defence 0.861 | Wisla Plock attack 0.906 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.108. Data: 60 GKS Katowice games / 26 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GKS Katowice 52% | Draw 28% | Wisla Plock 20%. Fair-value odds: GKS Katowice 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Wisla Plock 5.00. GKS Katowice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates GKS Katowice as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GKS Katowice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: GKS Katowice 40% | Wisla Plock 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion miejski w Katowicach • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GKS Katowice 52% | Draw 28% | Wisla Plock 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG GKS Katowice 1.55 / Wisla Plock 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: GKS Katowice attack 1.089 / def 0.861 | Wisla Plock attack 0.906 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: GKS Katowice (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
GKS Katowice xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Wisla Plock xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock kick off?
GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 11:15 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Stadion miejski w Katowicach.
What was the final score in GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock?
GKS Katowice 1 - 0 Wisla Plock.
Where is GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion miejski w Katowicach.
What competition is GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock part of?
GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives GKS Katowice a 52% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making GKS Katowice the favourite.
Will both teams score in GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both GKS Katowice and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between GKS Katowice and Wisla Plock?
Record (1 meetings): GKS Katowice 0W | Draws 1 | Wisla Plock 0W.
What form are GKS Katowice and Wisla Plock in?
GKS Katowice (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from GKS Katowice's attack rating (1.09) and Wisla Plock's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus GKS Katowice's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GKS Katowice Win
52%
1.91
28%
3.63
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
GKS Katowice xG
Total xG
2.41
0.86
Wisla Plock xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
4%
23.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.0 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are GKS Katowice and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for GKS Katowice and 0.86 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
GKS Katowice come into this having played 26 games, going 11W 3D 12L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for GKS Katowice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wisla Plock sit at 1.50 PPG from 26 outings (10W 9D 7L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: GKS Katowice on 1.38 PPG, Wisla Plock on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
GKS Katowice's home form reads 7W 2D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Wisla Plock have taken 1.15 points per game from 13 outings (3W 6D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GKS Katowice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
GKS Katowice are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.08 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GKS Katowice
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GKS Katowice and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
GKS Katowice have gone 11W 3D 12L in their last 26 games (1.38 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 10W 9D 7L in their last 26 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GKS Katowice at home or Wisla Plock away?
GKS Katowice's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GKS Katowice at home: 1.77 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GKS Katowice and Wisla Plock runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: GKS Katowice have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2026, when GKS Katowice won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GKS Katowice's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
GKS Katowice
1
Draws
0
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GKS Katowice and Wisla Plock?
From 3 meetings on record, GKS Katowice have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GKS Katowice and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when GKS Katowice 5-0 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between GKS Katowice and Wisla Plock?
GKS Katowice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GKS Katowice 46%, Wisla Plock 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (GKS Katowice) and 31% (Wisla Plock).
On the defensive side: GKS Katowice keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GKS Katowice home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GKS Katowice play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of GKS Katowice's games and 77% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of GKS Katowice's recent games and 31% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GKS Katowice and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
GKS Katowice have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as GKS Katowice edge out Wisla Plock 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GKS Katowice beat Wisla Plock 1-0 at Stadion miejski w Katowicach, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GKS Katowice 1.55 xG and Wisla Plock 0.86 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wisla Plock landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GKS Katowice attack 1.09 / defence 0.86 against Wisla Plock attack 0.91 / defence 1.01, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GKS Katowice 52% | Draw 28% | Wisla Plock 20%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GKS Katowice 50%, Wisla Plock 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GKS Katowice's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GKS Katowice 1.38 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GKS Katowice win broke the near-deadlock. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.