Górnik Łęczna 1-2 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Górnik Łęczna vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 16 as Górnik Łęczna welcome Gornik Zabrze to Stadion Górnik. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Górnik Łęczna — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Górnik Łęczna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Górnik Łęczna's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 3L across 8 games at Stadion Górnik this term (0.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gornik Zabrze stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Gornik Zabrze have posted 1W 2D 3L from 6 away outings — 0.83 PPG. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Gornik Zabrze — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Górnik Łęczna register both teams scoring in 62% of relevant matches, Gornik Zabrze in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Górnik Łęczna in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Gornik Zabrze in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Górnik Łęczna 64% versus Gornik Zabrze 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Górnik Łęczna 57% | Gornik Zabrze 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Górnik Łęczna 1.05 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.750 / defence 1.377 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.813 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.217. Górnik Łęczna's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Górnik Łęczna games / 14 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 29% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 44%. Fair-value odds: Górnik Łęczna 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Gornik Zabrze 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gornik Zabrze at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Górnik Łęczna 62% | Gornik Zabrze 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Górnik Łęczna vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Górnik • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 29% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Górnik Łęczna 1.05 / Gornik Zabrze 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.750 / def 1.377 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.813 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Górnik Łęczna xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Gornik Zabrze xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Górnik Łęczna vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Górnik Łęczna vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Stadion Górnik.
What was the final score in Górnik Łęczna vs Gornik Zabrze?
Górnik Łęczna 1 - 2 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Górnik Łęczna vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Górnik.
What competition is Górnik Łęczna vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Górnik Łęczna vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Górnik Łęczna vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Górnik Łęczna a 29% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Górnik Łęczna vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Górnik Łęczna and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Górnik Łęczna vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Gornik Zabrze?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Gornik Zabrze in?
Górnik Łęczna (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Górnik Łęczna's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Gornik Zabrze's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Górnik Łęczna's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
29%
3.49
28%
3.63
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Górnik Łęczna xG
Total xG
2.41
1.36
Gornik Zabrze xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
7%
13.64
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Górnik Łęczna vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Górnik Łęczna and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Górnik Łęczna and 1.36 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Górnik Łęczna vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Górnik Łęczna come into this having played 14 games, going 1W 5D 8L for 0.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Górnik Łęczna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gornik Zabrze sit at 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (5W 3D 6L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gornik Zabrze carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Górnik Łęczna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Górnik Łęczna's home form reads 1W 3D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.57 PPG overall — Górnik Łęczna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gornik Zabrze have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gornik Zabrze's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Górnik Łęczna are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 2.21 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.21 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Górnik Łęczna have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Górnik Łęczna
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Górnik Łęczna have gone 1W 5D 8L in their last 14 games (0.57 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Górnik Łęczna at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Górnik Łęczna's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Górnik Łęczna at home: 1.00 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Górnik Łęczna
0
Draws
2
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Gornik Zabrze?
From 2 meetings on record, Górnik Łęczna have won 0, Gornik Zabrze have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Górnik Łęczna and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2022, when Gornik Zabrze 4-2 Górnik Łęczna.
Who has won more matches between Górnik Łęczna and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Górnik Łęczna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Górnik Łęczna at 67%, Gornik Zabrze at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Górnik Łęczna) and 50% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Górnik Łęczna have failed to score in 33% of games; Gornik Zabrze in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Górnik Łęczna home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Górnik Łęczna play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Górnik Łęczna's games and 67% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Górnik Łęczna vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Górnik Łęczna's recent games and 50% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Górnik Łęczna and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Górnik Łęczna have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gornik Zabrze edge out Górnik Łęczna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Górnik Łęczna 1-2 at Stadion Górnik, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Górnik Łęczna 1.05 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.36 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Górnik Łęczna attack 0.75 / defence 1.38 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.81 / defence 1.19, drawn from 15/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Górnik Łęczna 29% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 44%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Górnik Łęczna 57%, Gornik Zabrze 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Górnik Łęczna's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gornik Zabrze arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.57. That form edge translated into the three points. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.