Cracovia Krakow 3-0 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Wisla Plock travel to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to take on Cracovia Krakow. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 May 2023, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Cracovia Krakow are significantly better at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Wisla Plock — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Wisla Plock away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Cracovia Krakow) versus 0.60 (Wisla Plock). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cracovia Krakow, 2 for Wisla Plock and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Wisla Plock winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 45% versus Wisla Plock 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 39% | Wisla Plock 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.57 xG and Wisla Plock 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.920 / defence 0.842 | Wisla Plock attack 0.820 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.057. Wisla Plock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing Cracovia Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Cracovia Krakow games / 67 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 57% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 16%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Wisla Plock 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Cracovia Krakow (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Cracovia Krakow 40% | Wisla Plock 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 57% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 42% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.57 / Wisla Plock 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.920 / def 0.842 | Wisla Plock attack 0.820 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Wisla Plock xG
42%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Cracovia Krakow 3 - 0 Wisla Plock.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 57% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock?
Record (3 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 1W | Draws 0 | Wisla Plock 2W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Wisla Plock (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Wisla Plock's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
57%
1.76
27%
3.75
16%
6.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.30
0.73
Wisla Plock xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
6.08
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
27%
3.65
3%
29.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 11.5 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.73 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 23W 20D 24L from 67 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 25W 10D 32L across 67 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.33 PPG, Wisla Plock on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cracovia Krakow have managed 14W 10D 9L from 33 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Plock's away record stands at 6W 4D 23L across 33 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.33 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
Wisla Plock
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 23W 20D 24L in their last 67 games (1.33 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 25W 10D 32L in their last 67 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Wisla Plock away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.58 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2022, when Cracovia Krakow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cracovia Krakow
1
Draws
3
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 1-2 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 39%, Wisla Plock 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Cracovia Krakow) and 61% (Wisla Plock).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Wisla Plock in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Wisla Plock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 64% of Wisla Plock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 61% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cracovia Krakow run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Wisla Plock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Wisla Plock 3-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.57 xG and Wisla Plock 0.73 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.92 / defence 0.84 against Wisla Plock attack 0.82 / defence 1.27, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 57% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 16%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 39%, Wisla Plock 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.33 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.