Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Widzew Łódź make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Cracovia Krakow (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Widzew Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Cracovia Krakow, 1.10 for Widzew Łódź — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Widzew Łódź in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cracovia Krakow 0W, Widzew Łódź 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2022, ended 0–2 with Widzew Łódź winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cracovia Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 36% versus Widzew Łódź 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cracovia Krakow 28% | Widzew Łódź 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.27 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.038 / defence 0.877 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.929 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.026. Data: 59 Cracovia Krakow games / 25 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 45% | Draw 32% | Widzew Łódź 23%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Widzew Łódź 4.35. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 30% | Widzew Łódź 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 45% | Draw 32% | Widzew Łódź 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.27 / Widzew Łódź 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.038 / def 0.877 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.929 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Widzew Łódź xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 45% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź?
Record (1 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 0W | Draws 0 | Widzew Łódź 1W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 1.04x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (0.93x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 59/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
45%
2.23
32%
3.10
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.10
0.84
Widzew Łódź xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
6%
15.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.84 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 9W 7D 9L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 10W 7D 8L from 25 games, 1.48 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.48 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1.75 PPG from 12 outings (6W 3D 3L).
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 5W 4D 3L from 12 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.24 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Widzew Łódź in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 9W 7D 9L in their last 25 games (1.36 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 10W 7D 8L in their last 25 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.75 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cracovia Krakow
4
Draws
3
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Widzew Łódź have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Widzew Łódź 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Cracovia Krakow) and 33% (Widzew Łódź) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Cracovia Krakow and 42% for Widzew Łódź.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Widzew Łódź in 50%; Cracovia Krakow have failed to score in 33% of games; Widzew Łódź in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 33% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 42% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 26, as Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.27 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.84 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.04 / defence 0.88 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.93 / defence 0.99, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 45% | Draw 32% | Widzew Łódź 23%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 28%, Widzew Łódź 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.36 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.