Cracovia Krakow 2-3 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 44%, yet in-form Piast Gliwice provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Piast Gliwice at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Cracovia Krakow are significantly better at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Piast Gliwice — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cracovia Krakow, 3 for Piast Gliwice and 5 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 9 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 64% versus Piast Gliwice 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 54% | Piast Gliwice 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.34 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.897 / defence 0.858 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.959 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.160. Data: 56 Cracovia Krakow games / 56 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 44% | Draw 31% | Piast Gliwice 25%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Piast Gliwice 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Piast Gliwice (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cracovia Krakow 50% | Piast Gliwice 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 27 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 44% | Draw 31% | Piast Gliwice 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.34 / Piast Gliwice 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.897 / def 0.858 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.959 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Piast Gliwice xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 27 February 2026 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Cracovia Krakow 2 - 3 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 44% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice?
Record (9 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 1W | Draws 5 | Piast Gliwice 3W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 0.90x the league average against Piast Gliwice's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
44%
2.28
31%
3.23
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.29
0.95
Piast Gliwice xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
7%
15.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.95 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 56 games, going 22W 18D 16L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-D. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Piast Gliwice sit at 1.27 PPG from 56 outings (18W 17D 21L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.50 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 9W 11D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Piast Gliwice have taken 1.19 points per game from 27 outings (9W 5D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.07 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 22W 18D 16L in their last 56 games (1.50 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 18W 17D 21L in their last 56 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.41 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Cracovia Krakow
5
Draws
4
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Piast Gliwice have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 2-3 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 70%, Piast Gliwice 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cracovia Krakow) and 44% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Piast Gliwice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 48% of Piast Gliwice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 44% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Piast Gliwice defy the odds to beat Cracovia Krakow 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Cracovia Krakow 2-3 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.34 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.95 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Piast Gliwice outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.90 / defence 0.86 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.96 / defence 1.09, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 44% | Draw 31% | Piast Gliwice 25%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Piast Gliwice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 54%, Piast Gliwice 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.50 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.