Viking vs Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Viking host Valerenga at SR-Bank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Viking — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking at SR-Bank Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Valerenga have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Viking carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Viking, 0 for Valerenga and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Viking in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 69% and Valerenga 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 76% | Valerenga 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.15 xG and Valerenga 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.213 / defence 1.182 | Valerenga attack 0.971 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.789 / away 1.208. Data: 55 Viking games / 55 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 53% | Draw 24% | Valerenga 23%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Valerenga 4.35. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Viking offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Viking 100% | Valerenga 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 53% | Draw 24% | Valerenga 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Viking 2.15 / Valerenga 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.213 / def 1.182 | Valerenga attack 0.971 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.789 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Viking (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Valerenga xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Valerenga kick off?
Viking vs Valerenga kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at SR-Bank Arena.
Where is Viking vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Valerenga part of?
Viking vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 53% chance of winning, Valerenga a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Viking and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Valerenga?
Record (3 meetings): Viking 1W | Draws 2 | Valerenga 0W.
What form are Viking and Valerenga in?
Viking (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Valerenga (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.21x the league average against Valerenga's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 2.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.15
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Viking xG
Total xG
3.53
1.39
Valerenga xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
12%
8.54
Win to Nil
13%
7.51
3%
37.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Viking and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Viking and 1.39 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Viking's recent record stands at 25W 13D 17L from 55 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 24W 20D 11L across 55 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Viking on 1.60 PPG, Valerenga on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Viking have managed 15W 6D 6L from 27 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 8W 9D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Viking are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.65 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Valerenga in 69%.
Last 55 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 25W 13D 17L in their last 55 games (1.60 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 24W 20D 11L in their last 55 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Valerenga away?
Viking's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.89 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Viking go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2025, when Viking won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Viking's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Viking
3
Draws
3
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 4, Valerenga have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Valerenga 0-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Valerenga?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Viking at 78%, Valerenga at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Viking and 52% for Valerenga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Viking's games and 63% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Viking's matches and 52% of Valerenga's.
Do Viking and Valerenga tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Viking's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking and Valerenga finished level at 0-0 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.15 xG and Valerenga 1.39 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Viking fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Valerenga landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.21 / defence 1.18 against Valerenga attack 0.97 / defence 0.99, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 53% | Draw 24% | Valerenga 23%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 76%, Valerenga 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Valerenga's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.60 PPG, Valerenga 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.