Viking 1-1 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Viking at 74%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Stromsgodset travel to SR-Bank Arena to take on Viking. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 July 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Viking stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's home record at SR-Bank Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Viking are significantly better at SR-Bank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Stromsgodset — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Viking at 1.40 PPG versus Stromsgodset's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Viking register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Stromsgodset in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Viking in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 62% and Stromsgodset 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 78% | Stromsgodset 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.92 xG and Stromsgodset 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.277 / defence 1.131 | Stromsgodset attack 0.833 / defence 1.390. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.152. Viking carry an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — their λ of 2.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Stromsgodset bring a strong defensive rating of 1.390 — this is suppressing Viking's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Viking games / 40 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 74% | Draw 16% | Stromsgodset 10%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | Stromsgodset 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Viking (74%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 4.00. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.00 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.92 / 1.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 4.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Viking 60% | Stromsgodset 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jul 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 74% | Draw 16% | Stromsgodset 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 63% | xG Viking 2.92 / Stromsgodset 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.277 / def 1.131 | Stromsgodset attack 0.833 / def 1.390 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Viking (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.92
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Stromsgodset xG
63%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Viking vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 10 July 2021 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Stromsgodset?
Viking 1 - 1 Stromsgodset.
Where is Viking vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Stromsgodset part of?
Viking vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 74% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 10% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Viking and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Stromsgodset?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Viking and Stromsgodset in?
Viking (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Stromsgodset (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Viking's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Stromsgodset's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.92. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.4%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
74%
1.35
16%
6.33
10%
9.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.92
Viking xG
Total xG
4.00
1.08
Stromsgodset xG
1.35
74%
Home win
6.33
16%
Draw
9.69
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
5%
18.45
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
1%
178.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Viking and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 2.92 expected goals for Viking and 1.08 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 4.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Stromsgodset?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Viking have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 17W 10D 13L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset's form line: 10W 13D 17L from 40 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Viking are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stromsgodset.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Viking have posted 1.84 PPG from 19 outings (10W 5D 4L).
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 4W 4D 11L from 19 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Viking are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.38 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Stromsgodset in 62%.
Last 40 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 17W 10D 13L in their last 40 games (1.52 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 10W 13D 17L in their last 40 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Stromsgodset away?
Viking's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.84 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Viking and Stromsgodset runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Viking have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Aug 2024, when Viking won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Viking's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Viking
3
Draws
2
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 5, Stromsgodset have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Stromsgodset 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Stromsgodset?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 68%, Stromsgodset 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Viking and 68% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Stromsgodset?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Viking's games and 58% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Viking's matches and 68% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Viking and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking and Stromsgodset share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking and Stromsgodset finished level at 1-1 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.92 xG and Stromsgodset 1.08 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Viking fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.28 / defence 1.13 against Stromsgodset attack 0.83 / defence 1.39, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 74% | Draw 16% | Stromsgodset 10%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 78%, Stromsgodset 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.