Viking vs Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Stromsgodset encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Stromsgodset travel to SR-Bank Arena to take on Viking. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 30 June 2021, 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Viking stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Viking's home record at SR-Bank Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stromsgodset — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Viking have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Viking in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 60% and Stromsgodset 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 73% | Stromsgodset 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.96 xG and Stromsgodset 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.262 / defence 0.955 | Stromsgodset attack 0.937 / defence 1.406. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.179. Viking carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 2.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Stromsgodset bring a strong defensive rating of 1.406 — this is suppressing Viking's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Viking games / 38 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 75% | Draw 15% | Stromsgodset 10%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.33 | Draw 6.67 | Stromsgodset 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Viking (75%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 4.01. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.01 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.96 / 1.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Viking 70% | Stromsgodset 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Jun 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 75% | Draw 15% | Stromsgodset 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 62% | xG Viking 2.96 / Stromsgodset 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.262 / def 0.955 | Stromsgodset attack 0.937 / def 1.406 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Viking (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.96
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Stromsgodset xG
62%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Viking vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 01:00 on Wednesday 30 June 2021 at SR-Bank Arena.
Where is Viking vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Stromsgodset part of?
Viking vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 75% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 10% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Viking and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Stromsgodset?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Viking and Stromsgodset in?
Viking (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Viking's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Stromsgodset's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.96. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.3%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
75%
1.33
15%
6.63
10%
10.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.96
Viking xG
Total xG
4.01
1.05
Stromsgodset xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.63
15%
Draw
10.28
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
5%
19.24
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
1%
197.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Viking and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 2.96 expected goals for Viking and 1.05 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 4.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Stromsgodset?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Viking have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 12W 8D 10L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Stromsgodset's form line: 7W 10D 13L from 30 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Viking are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stromsgodset.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Viking have posted 1.67 PPG from 15 outings (7W 4D 4L).
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 4W 4D 7L from 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Viking are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.37 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Stromsgodset in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 12W 8D 10L in their last 30 games (1.47 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Stromsgodset away?
Viking's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.67 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Viking and Stromsgodset runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Viking have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Aug 2024, when Viking won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Viking's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Viking
3
Draws
2
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 5, Stromsgodset have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Stromsgodset 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Stromsgodset?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Viking at 67%, Stromsgodset at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Viking and 73% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Stromsgodset?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Viking's games and 67% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Viking's matches and 73% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Viking and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Viking's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking and Stromsgodset finished level at 0-0 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.96 xG and Stromsgodset 1.05 xG, a combined 4.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Viking fell 3.0 short of their projected output. Stromsgodset landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.26 / defence 0.95 against Stromsgodset attack 0.94 / defence 1.41, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 75% | Draw 15% | Stromsgodset 10%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 73%, Stromsgodset 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.