Viking 2-1 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Mjondalen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Mjondalen travel to SR-Bank Arena to take on Viking. The game is scheduled for Thursday 27 May 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Viking — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Viking's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at SR-Bank Arena this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Mjondalen have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Mjondalen have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Viking 1.50 PPG, Mjondalen 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Viking, 0 for Mjondalen and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2020, ended 2–1 with Viking winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Viking in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Mjondalen in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Viking 60% versus Mjondalen 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 73% | Mjondalen 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.34 xG and Mjondalen 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.008 / defence 0.958 | Mjondalen attack 1.089 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.399. Data: 34 Viking games / 32 Mjondalen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Viking 32% | Draw 30% | Mjondalen 38%. Fair-value odds: Viking 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Mjondalen 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjondalen are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjondalen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Viking 70% | Mjondalen 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 27 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 32% | Draw 30% | Mjondalen 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Viking 1.34 / Mjondalen 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.008 / def 0.958 | Mjondalen attack 1.089 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Mjondalen xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Mjondalen kick off?
Viking vs Mjondalen kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 27 May 2021 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Mjondalen?
Viking 2 - 1 Mjondalen.
Where is Viking vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Mjondalen part of?
Viking vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 32% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Viking and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Mjondalen?
Record (2 meetings): Viking 1W | Draws 1 | Mjondalen 0W.
What form are Viking and Mjondalen in?
Viking (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Mjondalen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Viking's attack rating (1.01) and Mjondalen's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mjondalen's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (34/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
32%
3.10
30%
3.35
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Viking xG
Total xG
2.80
1.46
Mjondalen xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
8%
13.33
10%
10.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Viking and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Viking and 1.46 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Viking have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 12W 8D 10L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Mjondalen's form line: 9W 2D 19L from 30 games, 0.97 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Viking are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mjondalen.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Viking have posted 1.79 PPG from 14 outings (7W 4D 3L).
On the road, Mjondalen have gone 2W 2D 10L from 14 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mjondalen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Viking are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 0.97 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
Mjondalen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 12W 8D 10L in their last 30 games (1.47 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 9W 2D 19L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Mjondalen away?
Viking's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.79 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Viking and Mjondalen runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Viking have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Viking's record when hosting Mjondalen specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Viking
1
Draws
0
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Viking have won 3, Mjondalen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2021, when Mjondalen 0-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Mjondalen?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 64%, Mjondalen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Viking) and 43% (Mjondalen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjondalen in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Viking's games and 50% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Viking's matches and 43% of Mjondalen's.
Do Viking and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Viking defy the odds to beat Mjondalen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Mjondalen 2-1 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.34 xG and Mjondalen 1.46 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.01 / defence 0.96 against Mjondalen attack 1.09 / defence 0.87, drawn from 34/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Viking 32% | Draw 30% | Mjondalen 38%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Viking win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 73%, Mjondalen 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Mjondalen's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.